Match Info

Serie B - Round 11

Date: 31 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Primeiro de Maio (Sao Bernardo)

Referee: Vitor Gobi J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, Premiere


	São Bernardo		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	2.65	2.82	2.82	Watch
	2.7	3	2.5
	2.62	2.88	2.82
	2.76	2.98	3.01
	2.73	2.81	2.93	Watch
	2.63	2.8	2.8
	2.66	2.85	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↓ (2.88)	2.88 ↑ (2.62)	2.82 ↓ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Bernardo
34.7%

Draw
32.3%

Grêmio Novorizontino
33%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

35.7%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

36.3%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	53.8%	15.4%

São Bernardo - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. São Bernardo will win (votes: 3 - 30%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alex Alves (G) 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 35. Jemerson 97. Augusto 6. Para 26. Dudu Miraima 8. Foguinho (C) 11. Pedro Vitor 42. Hyoran 27. Echapora 9. Felipe Garcia	93. Jordi (G) 21. Kauan Alemao 3. Carlinhos 4. Patrick 66. Maykon Jesus 17. Matheus Bianqui 18. Leo Naldi 15. Tavinho 10. Romulo 16. Vinicius Paiva 11. Robson (C)
Substitutes
89. Daniel Amorim 37. Davi D. 25. Gonzaga W. 21. Hugo Sanches 30. Junior Urso 31. Lucas Fernandes 7. Lucas Rian 77. Marcao Silva 33. Mario Sergio 40. Matheus Nogueira (G) 22. Pablo Dyego 29. Pedrinho	9. Carlao 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 19. Diego Galo 26. Gabriel Bahia 77. Helio Borges 22. Ivan Alvarino 50. Juninho 8. Ortiz C. 41. Reidiney 33. Renato Palm 7. Ronald Barcellos 36. Tavares Miguel
Coaches
Ricardo Catala	Moreira E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Romulo (Penalty Awarded),
17', 1 - 1, Pedro Vitor ⚽,
20', Enderson Moreira 🟨,
38', Dudu Miraima 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Juninho ↑,
64', Hyoran ↓, Lucas Fernandes ↑,
71', Echapora ↓, Davi D. ↑,
72', Pedro Vitor 🟨,
77', Foguinho ↓, Marcao Silva ↑,
77', Pedro Vitor ↓, Junior Urso ↑,
77', Felipe Garcia ↓, Pablo Dyego ↑,
81', Tavinho ↓, Ronald Barcellos ↑,
82', Leo Naldi ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
86', Kauan Alemao 🟨,
89', Romulo ↓, Carlao ↑,
89', Kauan Alemao ↓, Ivan Alvarino ↑,
89', Ortiz C. 🟨,
90+1', Para 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie A Betano and 9).

São Bernardo is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Novorizontino has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Novorizontino may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in São Bernardo: Matheus Salustiano (Knee Injury) Rodrigo Andrade (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Novorizontino: Castrillon N. (Yellow Cards) Diego Mathias (Inactive) Eduardo Brock (Injury) Lora J. (Inactive) Lucas Pereira (Inactive) Luis Oyama (Injury) Nicolas Careca (Injury) Paulo Henrique (Inactive) Sander (Inactive)

There are questionable in São Bernardo: Dudu Miraima (Injury) Fabricio Daniel (Muscle Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, São Bernardo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 1:1.8).

Including home match between the teams, São Bernardo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52:27	25	54
12	Sao Bernardo	32	12	9	11	44:34	10	45

Last Results with these Odds

Grêmio Novorizontino - the odds 2.93 are the expected chance of winning is 31.89%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Serie B
24.05.26	Atlético Goianiense - São Bernardo	0:1 ✺
16.05.26	São Bernardo - América Mineiro	1:1 ✺
12.05.26	Londrina - São Bernardo	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
06.05.26	São Bernardo - Caxias	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	São Bernardo - Ponte Preta	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 WTWTW
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
27.05.26	Chapecoense - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
23.05.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ceará	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
20.05.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Chapecoense	0:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
16.05.26	Cuiabá - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:0 ✺
10.05.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
09.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
07.02.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo	2:1
06.02.25	São Bernardo - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1
04.02.17	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo	3:2

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