Match Info

Serie B - Round 8

Date: 12 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Vitorino Goncalves Dias (VGD) (Londrina)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Londrina		São Bernardo

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.75	3.7	Watch
	2.3	2.9	3.1
	2.25	2.88	3.45	Watch
	2.35	2.94	3.78
	2.25	2.92	3.62	Watch
	2.3	2.88	3.3
	2.27	2.79	3.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.42)	2.87 ↑ (2.85)	3.51 ↑ (3.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Londrina
41%

Draw
32.5%

São Bernardo
26.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

32.6%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

32.9%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Londrina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Londrina than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	27.3%	45.5%

Londrina - São Bernardo Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Londrina will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). São Bernardo will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for São Bernardo: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. São Bernardo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - São Bernardo (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - São Bernardo (1.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. São Bernardo (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Mauricio Kozlinski (G) 2. Weverton 3. Yago Lincoln 15. Gabriel Lacerda 34. Heron 8. Lucas Marques (C) 5. Andre Luiz 96. Thalis 6. Rafael Monteiro 19. Rodriguez E. 9. Bruno Santos	1. Alex Alves (G) 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 3. Helder Maciel 97. Augusto 6. Para 8. Foguinho (C) 17. Romisson 10. Fabricio Daniel 26. Dudu Miraima 27. Echapora 89. Daniel Amorim
Substitutes
17. Andre Cardoso 28. Caio Maia 22. Caio Rodrigues 20. Fabiano 32. Joao Tavares 99. Joao Vitor 77. Juninho 21. Kaue Leonardo 1. Luan Ribeiro (G) 27. Murilo Sousa 18. Paulinho Moccelin 7. Vitinho Mota	9. Felipe Garcia 25. Gonzaga W. 21. Hugo Sanches 42. Hyoran 35. Jemerson 31. Lucas Fernandes 7. Lucas Rian 77. Marcao Silva 33. Mario Sergio 40. Matheus Nogueira (G) 22. Pablo Dyego 29. Pedrinho
Coaches
Daniel Azambuja	Ricardo Catala

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
4', Fabricio Daniel ↓, Pablo Dyego ↑,
7', 0 - 1, Daniel Amorim ⚽, Romisson (A),
21', 0 - 2, Dudu Miraima ⚽,
25', Weverton 🟨,
45+1', Lucas Marques 🟨,
45+2', Heron ↓, Vitinho Mota ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Weverton ↓, Kaue Leonardo ↑,
46', Rodriguez E. ↓, Juninho ↑,
52', Foguinho 🟨,
59', 0 - 3, Dudu Miraima ⚽,
67', Daniel Amorim ↓, Felipe Garcia ↑,
67', Foguinho ↓, Marcao Silva ↑,
76', Echapora ↓, Lucas Fernandes ↑,
78', Lucas Marques ↓, Joao Tavares ↑,
80', Dudu Miraima ↓, Lucas Rian ↑,
85', Thalis ↓, Paulinho Moccelin ↑,
85', 1 - 3, Paulinho Moccelin ⚽, Kaue Leonardo (A),
90+1', Yago Lincoln 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

Londrina is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

São Bernardo is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Londrina may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Londrina might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Londrina won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Londrina won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Sao Bernardo: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Sao Bernardo	32	12	9	11	44:34	10	45
18	Londrina	32	7	7	18	40:47	-7	28

Last Results with these Odds

São Bernardo - the odds 3.22 are the expected chance of winning is 28.87%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Londrina EC
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	Operário Ferroviario - Londrina	3:0 ✺
25.04.26	Juventude - Londrina	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Londrina - Ceará	0:0 ✺
12.04.26	Atlético Goianiense - Londrina	2:1 ✺
04.04.26	Londrina - Sport Recife	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LLTLL
- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
06.05.26	São Bernardo - Caxias	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
03.05.26	São Bernardo - Ponte Preta	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
30.04.26	Tombense - São Bernardo	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
26.04.26	São Bernardo - Goiás	1:0 ✺
18.04.26	Náutico Capibaribe - São Bernardo	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
11.10.25	Londrina - São Bernardo	1:1
06.09.25	São Bernardo - Londrina	2:2
05.05.25	São Bernardo - Londrina	0:0
19.05.24	Londrina - São Bernardo	2:0

Upcoming Matches