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Current Win Probability
Grêmio Novorizontino 31.1%
Draw 32.2%
Chapecoense 36.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
41.1%
29.6%
29.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
42.9%
28.4%
28.1%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Grêmio Novorizontino's form might have worsened.
Chapecoense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chapecoense's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+11.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Grêmio Novorizontino, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (-8.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chapecoense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Grêmio Novorizontino - Chapecoense Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Joao Scapin (G) 19. Diego Galo 35. Hector Bianchi 22. Ivan Alvarino 40. Jardiel 21. Kauan Alemao 38. Magalhaes de Freitas L. G. 8. Ortiz C. 33. Renato Palm (C) 7. Ronald Barcellos 36. Tavares Miguel
1. Rafael Santos (G) 33. Bruno Leonardo 27. Camilo Reijers (C) 37. Clar W. 3. Eduardo Doma 26. Everton 10. Giovanni Augusto 77. Italo 5. Joao Vitor 18. Neto Pessoa 35. Vinicius Eduardo
Substitutes
78. Arthur Barbosa 60. Bahia L. 34. Edson Nogueira 55. Goncalves L. 23. Jhones 94. Pedrao (G) 54. Santos B. 49. Zenatti P.
98. Anderson (G) 11. Bolasie Y. 19. David Antunes 20. Jean Carlos 4. Joao Paulo 2. Marcos Vinicius 31. Mauricio Garcez 99. Rafael Carvalheira 94. Ramirez K. 70. Rubens Ricoldi 17. Vinicius Balieiro 38. Wermeson
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
45+1', 0 - 1, Eduardo Doma ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Joao Vitor ↓, Rafael Carvalheira ↑,
52', Ortiz C. 🟨,
61', Giovanni Augusto ↓, Jean Carlos ↑,
61', Italo ↓, Mauricio Garcez ↑,
63', Tavares Miguel 🟨,
65', Eduardo Doma 🟨,
68', Hector Bianchi ↓, Zenatti P. ↑,
69', Vinicius Eduardo 🟨,
74', 0 - 2, Jean Carlos ⚽,
77', Neto Pessoa ↓, Bolasie Y. ↑,
87', Magalhaes de Freitas L. G. 🟨,
87', Everton ↓, Marcos Vinicius ↑,
90', Ronald Barcellos ↓, Jhones ↑,
90', Ortiz C. ↓, Santos B. ↑,
90+4', 🟨,
Preview
First leg.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 3.
Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
Chapecoense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Novorizontino might have a minor edge in this game.
In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 1:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Novorizontino won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.8:1.3).
Watch
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Joao Scapin (G) 
Ivan Alvarino 
Clar W. 
Bolasie Y. 
Ramirez K. 
100% bonus on 1st bet up to €200 in free bet
