Match Info

Gaucho - Troféu Farroupilha - Play Offs - Final

Date: 2 March 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio 19 de Outubro (Ijuí)


	São Luiz		Novo Hamburgo

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.25	3.25	Watch
	2.05	3.2	3.3
				Watch
	2.46	3.05	3.24
	2.38	3.05	3.1	Watch
	2.3	2.9	2.8
	2.38	2.75	3.17	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.42)	3.03 ↑ (2.67)	3.14 ↓ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Luiz
40.5%

Draw
30.3%

Novo Hamburgo
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

34.6%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

34.6%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Luiz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Novo Hamburgo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Luiz than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Novo Hamburgo than the current prediction. (-2%)

São Luiz - Novo Hamburgo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. São Luiz (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Hamburgo (2.06) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. São Luiz (votes: 1 - 50%). Hamburgo (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gabriel Oliveira (G) 2. Lucas Hian 3. Heitor 4. Gabriel Santiago 16. Higor 5. Lucas Hulk 8. Araujo (C) 25. Vidmar 11. Rogerio Sena 10. Valber Junior 9. Felipe Rangel	1. Omar (G) 6. Josue 4. Joao Marcus 3. Santana V. 2. Guilherme Mantuan 8. Carlos Maia 5. Amaral (C) 7. Marcos Vinicius 10. Leandro Moura 9. Rone 11. Allison
Substitutes
14. Caetano 20. de Lima G. N. 18. Denis Germano 21. Eduardo 7. Escuro 22. Felipe Tontini 15. Jean Henrique 6. Marcio Duarte 12. Prezzi (G) 23. Renan (G) 17. Victor Jesus	12. Breno Boeno (G) 18. de Souza Marques S. 20. Henrique 16. Jhonata Lima 21. Joao Castro 17. Luam Parede 19. Matheus Batista 22. Muriel 25. Pablo (G) 15. Santos C. 13. Vinicius Amaral 14. Vinicius Kiss
Coaches
Marques P.	Rogerio Zimermann

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Valber Junior ⚽, Lucas Hian (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Vidmar ↓, Victor Jesus ↑,
53', Valber Junior 🟨,
63', Valber Junior ↓, Felipe Tontini ↑,
67', Guilherme Mantuan ↓, Muriel ↑,
67', Carlos Maia ↓, Vinicius Kiss ↑,
67', Allison ↓, Matheus Batista ↑,
72', Rogerio Sena ↓, Denis Germano ↑,
72', Marcos Vinicius ↓, Vinicius Amaral ↑,
82', Higor ↓, Marcio Duarte ↑,
82', Felipe Rangel ↓, Escuro ↑,
87', Leandro Moura ↓, Luam Parede ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Luiz won 3.

São Luiz has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Hamburgo is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

São Luiz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, São Luiz won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 0.8:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, São Luiz won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:0. (average 1.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC São Luiz
Copa do Brasil
25.02.26	São Luiz - Maranhão	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
21.02.26	Caxias - São Luiz	0:2 penalties ✺
16.02.26	São Luiz - Caxias	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Internacional RS - São Luiz	3:1 ✺
31.01.26	Monsoon - São Luiz	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 LWLLT
- EC Novo Hamburgo
Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
22.02.26	EC São José Porto Alegre - Novo Hamburgo	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Novo Hamburgo - EC São José Porto Alegre	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Grêmio - Novo Hamburgo	1:0 ✺
31.01.26	Novo Hamburgo - Guarany de Bagé	2:0 ✺
24.01.26	Avenida - Novo Hamburgo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Gaucho
21.01.26	São Luiz - Novo Hamburgo	1:0
03.02.24	Novo Hamburgo - São Luiz	1:0
02.02.23	São Luiz - Novo Hamburgo	1:0
06.02.22	Novo Hamburgo - São Luiz	0:0
14.03.21	São Luiz - Novo Hamburgo	2:0
02.02.20	Novo Hamburgo - São Luiz	0:0
05.02.19	São Luiz - Novo Hamburgo	2:0

São Luiz - Novo Hamburgo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide