Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 5

Date: 19 March 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda (Quito)

Referee: Contreras O. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Teleamazonas, Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports


	SD Aucas		Técnico Universitario

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.2	4.33	Watch
	1.75	3.3	4.1
	1.92	3.1	4.05	Watch
	1.91	3.18	4.77
	1.94	3.23	4.19	Watch
	1.91	2.9	3.9
	1.84	3.17	4.73	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (1.95)	3.15 ↓ (3.31)	4.3 ↑ (3.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SD Aucas
49.2%

Draw
29.3%

Técnico Universitario
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

28.3%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

27.8%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SD Aucas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Técnico Universitario has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Técnico Universitario than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	0%	9.1%

SD Aucas - Técnico Universitario Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Aucas (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Técnico Univ (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Técnico Univ (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: SD Aucas will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Aucas (votes: 2 - 50%). Técnico Univ (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Piedra H. (G) 37. Zova A. 16. Gustavino L. 3. Ontaneda J. (C) 28. Quinonez R. 6. Spina A. L. 57. Vera M. 21. Guzman P. 18. Mena A. 33. Porozo S. 7. Miranda B.	1. Razzeto S. (G) 23. Mesa Mercado E. E. 5. Cagua M. 13. Anaya J. 85. Arce Y. 28. Perea M. 10. Johan Bocanegra 70. Castano M. 33. Majao J. 7. Estupinan L. (C) 17. Montes J.
Substitutes
29. Arroyo L. 52. Caicedo J. 31. Carabali B. 1. Chaves I. (G) 99. Japa E. 91. Luna D. 2. Morales S. 55. Olaya V. 10. Preciado E. 5. Serpa T. 89. Sosa A.	30. Arce K. 16. Caicedo J. 67. Carrasco Bonilla M. A. 19. Castillo A. 15. Castillo F. 8. Chaves M. 27. Copete A. 9. Fernandez L. 77. Garcia C. 12. Morales A. (G)
Coaches
Araujo N.	Usucar F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
58', Porozo S. ↓, Arroyo L. ↑,
58', Guzman P. ↓, Luna D. ↑,
65', 0 - 1, Castano M. ⚽,
69', Estupinan L. ↓, Caicedo J. ↑,
69', Vera M. ↓, Japa E. ↑,
72', Miranda B. 🟨,
73', Castano M. 🟨,
79', Mena A. ↓, Sosa A. ↑,
82', Montes J. 🟨,
82', Montes J. ↓, Fernandez L. ↑,
82', Perea M. ↓, Arce K. ↑,
86', Castano M. ↓, Copete A. ↑,
86', Johan Bocanegra ↓, Chaves M. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 3.

Recent form of Aucas has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Técnico Univ's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Aucas is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 29:25. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Aucas won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 22:13. (average 2:1.2).

Standings

Championship Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Aucas	31	14	8	9	34:30	4	50

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
14.03.26	Independiente del Valle - SD Aucas	2:2 ✺
08.03.26	SD Aucas - Deportivo Cuenca	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Guayaquil City - SD Aucas	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	SD Aucas - Mushuc Runa	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
13.02.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - SD Aucas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TLTTL
- Técnico Universitario
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
13.03.26	Técnico Universitario - Libertad Loja	2:1 ✺
08.03.26	Deportivo Macará - Técnico Universitario	1:1 ✺
27.02.26	Técnico Universitario - Orense	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Técnico Universitario	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
08.02.26	SD Aucas - Técnico Universitario	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
08.02.26	SD Aucas - Técnico Universitario	1:0
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
15.06.25	Técnico Universitario - SD Aucas	1:1
15.02.25	SD Aucas - Técnico Universitario	4:1
12.08.24	Técnico Universitario - SD Aucas	2:0
10.03.24	SD Aucas - Técnico Universitario	3:1
17.09.23	SD Aucas - Técnico Universitario	2:4
15.04.23	Técnico Universitario - SD Aucas	0:1

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