Match Info

Veikkausliiga

Date: 3 August 2025, Sunday

Location: OmaSp Stadion (Seinajoki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	Onefootball


	SJK		KTP Kotka

	1	X	2
	1.57	4.1	4.75	Watch
	1.46	5	5.5
	1.58	4.6	5	Watch
	1.6	4.43	5.23
	1.68	3.92	4.66	Watch
	1.44	4.6	6
	1.61	4.18	4.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.47)	4.4 ↓ (4.71)	5.14 ↓ (6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SJK
60.3%

Draw
21.4%

KTP Kotka
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.2%

20%

15.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

19.4%

15.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SJK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

KTP Kotka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SJK than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for SJK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for KTP Kotka than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	11.1%	11.1%

SJK - KTP Kotka Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. SJK will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). KTP will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for SJK: 50.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Paunio R. (G) 6. Yussif S. 4. Pires K. 28. Chukwudi S. 3. Fati B. 10. Paananen K. 8. Gasc V. R. 30. Padera P. 70. Vargas A. 17. Tessilimi O. 7. Karjalainen R.	31. Linner O. (G) 14. Lehtiranta J. 44. Akpudje J. 4. Toivio J. 42. Aspegren F. 10. Forsell P. 6. Tahmbi N. 24. Toivonen A. 18. Seck A. 37. Tanaka A. 28. Rangel
Substitutes
18. Arsalo M. 11. Laine L. 19. Mastokangas E. 67. Obileye A. 80. Riihimaki H. (G) 9. Streng J. 5. Vaisto O. 34. Vesterbacka L. 27. Wilson A.	15. Edlund C. 8. Elle Essouma F. 19. Glasson M. 1. Koski J. (G) 26. Paavola M. 21. Sumusalo M. 77. Weckstrom L.
Coaches
Grieve S.	Nyholm J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Paananen K. ⚽, Fati B. (A),
25', Tessilimi O. 🟨,
28', Padera P. 🟨,
42', Akpudje J. 🟨,
45', 2 - 0, Vargas A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Seck A. ↓, Edlund C. ↑,
46', Chukwudi S. ↓, Vaisto O. ↑,
46', Tessilimi O. ↓, Streng J. ↑,
46', Padera P. ↓, Arsalo M. ↑,
55', Arsalo M. ↓, Wilson A. ↑,
58', Forsell P. (Pen),
60', Yussif S. 🟨,
64', 🟨,
68', Lehtiranta J. ↓, Paavola M. ↑,
74', 3 - 0, Fati B. ⚽,
74', Pires K. ↓, Obileye A. ↑,
76', Gasc V. R. 🟨,
79', Tahmbi N. ↓, Elle Essouma F. ↑,
79', Tanaka A. ↓, Glasson M. ↑,
87', Obileye A. 🟨,
90+4', Elle Essouma F. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Veikkausliiga (Championship Group: ) and 12 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, SJK won 3.

SJK has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

KTP has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

SJK may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, SJK is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in KTP: Makela J. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in SJK: Yussif S. (Injury)

There are questionable in KTP: Akpudje J. (Injury) Tarvonen A. (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, SJK won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 1.4:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, SJK won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SJK Seinajoki
Finnish Veikkausliiga
27.07.25	Inter Turku - SJK	4:1 ✺
20.07.25	SJK - Gnistan	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
17.07.25	KÍ Klaksvík - SJK	2:0 ✺
10.07.25	SJK - KÍ Klaksvík	1:2 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
05.07.25	SJK - Ilves	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLLT
- KTP Kotka
Finnish Veikkausliiga
26.07.25	Haka - KTP Kotka	2:3 ✺
18.07.25	KTP Kotka - Inter Turku	2:2 ✺
13.07.25	Oulu - KTP Kotka	3:2 ✺
07.07.25	KTP Kotka - Gnistan	0:0 ✺
02.07.25	Ilves - KTP Kotka	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga
05.04.25	KTP Kotka - SJK	0:1
15.08.23	SJK - KTP Kotka	2:3
22.05.23	KTP Kotka - SJK	0:2
14.09.21	KTP Kotka - SJK	0:1
03.05.21	SJK - KTP Kotka	1:1
20.09.15	KTP Kotka - SJK	1:3
12.07.15	SJK - KTP Kotka	1:0

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