Match Info

Veikkausliiga - Round 5

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: OmaSp Stadion (Seinajoki)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Ruutu+
World	Onefootball


	SJK		Ilves

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.75	2.8	Watch
	2.6	3.6	2.4
	2.22	3.7	2.82	Watch
	2.42	3.87	2.92
	2.34	3.7	2.82	Watch
	2.3	3.5	2.7
	2.25	3.75	2.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.34 ↓ (2.57)	3.7 ↓ (3.74)	2.75 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SJK
40.3%

Draw
25.5%

Ilves
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

25%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

24.6%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SJK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SJK than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

SJK - Ilves Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. SJK will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Ilves will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - SJK (1.72) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. SJK (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Paunio R. (G) 6. Yussif S. 4. Pires K. 28. Chukwudi S. 5. Vaisto O. 23. Wilson A. 10. Paananen K. 18. Arsalo M. (C) 19. Mastokangas E. 9. Streng J. 47. Suso M.	12. Krkalic F. (G) 13. Wallius K. 24. Kumpu V. 16. Miettunen T. 3. Rale M. 22. Multala O. 30. Kanga J. (C) 6. Raap Y. 8. Stjopin M. 9. Hytonen T. 28. Kilo J.
Substitutes
8. Bostrom A. 21. Bulgakov D. 42. Caio Araujo 37. Mani 26. Moisio J. 30. Padera P. 99. Rangel 17. Tessilimi O. 35. Viitala J. (G)	19. Bamba G. 17. Baranov S. 31. Leislahti R. (G) 33. Paavola O. 4. Pettersson O. 25. Suvanne S. 45. Tamminen E. 20. Tiitinen O. 1. Virtanen O. (G)
Coaches
Wiss J.	Lehtonen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
1', 0 - 1, Stjopin M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mastokangas E. ↓, Tessilimi O. ↑,
57', Vaisto O. ↓, Bostrom A. ↑,
57', Arsalo M. ↓, Rangel ↑,
68', Kilo J. ↓, Suvanne S. ↑,
68', Raap Y. ↓, Tiitinen O. ↑,
74', Wilson A. 🟨,
78', Wallius K. ↓, Pettersson O. ↑,
78', Kanga J. ↓, Baranov S. ↑,
82', Suso M. ↓, Bulgakov D. ↑,
82', Wilson A. ↓, Mani ↑,
89', Hytonen T. ↓, Paavola O. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 1, Rangel ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: ) and 11 in the zone Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, SJK won 2.

SJK has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ilves's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ilves may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in SJK: Bjorkskog A. (Inactive) Mommo E. (Inactive) Oksanen G. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Ilves: Ala-Myllymaki L. (Injury) Vaisanen S. (Injury) Virtanen O. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, SJK won 11 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 38:30. (average 1.9:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, SJK won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 19:8. (average 2.1:0.9).

Last Results with these Odds

SJK - the odds 2.57 are the expected chance of winning is 36.36%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SJK Seinajoki
Finnish Cup
28.04.26	VPS 2 - SJK	1:6 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
24.04.26	SJK - FF Jaro	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	TPS - SJK	2:0 ✺
10.04.26	SJK - IFK Mariehamn	3:0 ✺
04.04.26	HJK - SJK	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WTLWL
- FC Ilves
Finnish Veikkausliiga
24.04.26	VPS Vaasa - Ilves	3:2 ✺
18.04.26	IFK Mariehamn - Ilves	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Inter Turku - Ilves	3:2 ✺
04.04.26	Ilves - KuPS Kuopio	1:3 ✺
Club Friendly
27.03.26	Ilves - Mikkelin Palloilijat	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
18.02.26	Ilves - SJK	3:1
Finnish Veikkausliiga
03.11.25	Ilves - SJK	3:3
04.10.25	SJK - Ilves	2:1
05.07.25	SJK - Ilves	1:1
18.06.25	Ilves - SJK	2:3
Finnish Veikkausliiga Liiga Cup
25.01.25	Ilves - SJK	1:1
Finnish Veikkausliiga
19.10.24	Ilves - SJK	4:0

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