Match Info

Primera B - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 6 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Beto Larrosa (Villa Soldati)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Sacachispas		Ferrocarril Midland

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.2	2.7	2.3
	2.95	2.95	2.5	Watch
	3.92	3.06	1.99
	4.07	3.13	1.91	Watch
	3.3	2.62	2.4
	4.28	3.26	1.89
	2.95	2.95	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.52 ↑ (2.9)	2.95 ↑ (2.9)	2.21 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sacachispas
26.4%

Draw
31.5%

Ferrocarril Midland
42.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sacachispas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sacachispas's form might have worsened.

Ferrocarril Midland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ferrocarril Midland's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sacachispas than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sacachispas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferrocarril Midland than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ferrocarril Midland, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Sacachispas - Ferrocarril Midland Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sacachispas (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Ferrocarril (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Ferrocarril (1.33) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Sacachispas (votes: 1 - 20%). Ferrocarril (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Troncoso F. (G) 4. Barreiro E. 2. Ortiz H. 6. Romero K. 3. Barreto R. 8. Cena S. 5. Soria E. 10. Visco A. 11. Abregu E. 7. Martinez J. 9. Oltmann J. C.	1. Maldonado L. (G) 6. Gigli L. 3. Kruger J. 14. Meza F. 20. Campana A. I. 8. Frattini M. 19. Goyeneche J. 7. Rogoski M. 5. Violini N. 9. Calabria G. . Vico L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Oltmann J. C. ↓, Magnano T. ↑,
46', Abregu E. ↓, Campuzano C. ↑,
62', Violini N. ↓, Calabria G. ↑,
62', Gomez G. ↓, Campana A. I. ↑,
66', Soria E. 🟨,
76', Visco A. ↓, Arrieta S. ↑,
76', Soria E. ↓, Zarate L. ↑,
79', Diaz Laharque L. ↓, Figueroa R. ↑,
79', Frattini M. ↓, Nunez D. ↑,
79', Molina F. ↓, Goyeneche J. ↑,
82', Martinez J. ↓, Villalba J. ↑,
85', Zarate L. 🟨,
87', Figueroa R. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 20 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Super final: Final)).

Sacachispas has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ferrocarril is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Ferrocarril may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sacachispas won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sacachispas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sacachispas FC
Argentinian Primera B
25.04.25	Excursionistas - Sacachispas	3:1 ✺
22.04.25	Sacachispas - Acassuso	1:1 ✺
12.04.25	Brown de Adrogué - Sacachispas	0:3 ✺
08.04.25	Sacachispas - Argentino de Merlo	1:2 ✺
29.03.25	Argentino de Quilmes - Sacachispas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 LTWLT
- Ferrocarril Midland
Argentinian Primera B
26.04.25	Ferrocarril Midland - Deportivo Merlo	0:0 ✺
19.04.25	Sportivo Dock Sud - Ferrocarril Midland	1:1 ✺
16.04.25	Acassuso - Ferrocarril Midland	1:1 ✺
12.04.25	Ferrocarril Midland - Villa San Carlos	2:0 ✺
05.04.25	Real Pilar - Ferrocarril Midland	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera B
19.10.24	Sacachispas - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0
02.06.24	Ferrocarril Midland - Sacachispas	3:0
Argentinian Primera C
14.05.17	Sacachispas - Ferrocarril Midland	1:2
30.10.16	Ferrocarril Midland - Sacachispas	0:1
02.05.16	Ferrocarril Midland - Sacachispas	0:1

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