Match Info

Primera B - Apertura - Round 13

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Raul Roberto Sabureau Stadium (Buenos Aires)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play
South-america	DGO Latin America
Uruguay	DSports 1
Venezuela	DSports 1


	Ferrocarril Midland		Deportivo Merlo

	1	X	2
	1.87	2.87	4.2
	2.27	2.8	3.5	Watch
	2.31	2.78	3.47
	2.25	2.8	3.48	Watch
	1.95	2.9	4.2
	2.24	2.88	3.48	Watch
	2.27	2.8	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (1.82)	2.83 ↓ (3)	3.69 ↓ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferrocarril Midland
42.5%

Draw
32.5%

Deportivo Merlo
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

30.3%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.6%

29.3%

19.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferrocarril Midland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ferrocarril Midland's form might have worsened.

Deportivo Merlo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Deportivo Merlo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferrocarril Midland than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ferrocarril Midland, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Merlo than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Deportivo Merlo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ferrocarril Midland - Deportivo Merlo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Maldonado L. (G) 4. Diaz Laharque L. 2. Castorani P. 6. Gigli L. 3. Kruger J. 8. Frattini M. (C) 5. Aguilar D. 10. Gomez G. 11. Molina F. 7. Rogoski M. 9. Calabria G.	1. Fernandez P. (G) 4. Aguerre F. 2. Perez S. 6. Mendez E. 3. Jimenez A. 8. Arellano L. 5. Ferreyra F. 10. Benega S. 11. Meza A. 7. Gonzalez F. 9. Cao R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', 🟨,
40', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', 🟨,
58', 🟨,
69', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Super final: Final) and 6).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ferrocarril won 0.

Ferrocarril is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Deportivo Merlo is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ferrocarril could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Ferrocarril is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Ferrocarril won 0 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 7:14 (average 0.7:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Ferrocarril won 0 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:4 (average 0.8:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferrocarril Midland
Argentinian Primera B
19.04.25	Sportivo Dock Sud - Ferrocarril Midland	1:1 ✺
16.04.25	Acassuso - Ferrocarril Midland	1:1 ✺
12.04.25	Ferrocarril Midland - Villa San Carlos	2:0 ✺
05.04.25	Real Pilar - Ferrocarril Midland	0:1 ✺
30.03.25	Ferrocarril Midland - UAI Urquiza	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15 TTWWW
- Deportivo Merlo
Argentinian Primera B
20.04.25	Deportivo Merlo - Excursionistas	3:2 ✺
12.04.25	Acassuso - Deportivo Merlo	1:0 ✺
05.04.25	Deportivo Merlo - Brown de Adrogué	0:1 ✺
28.03.25	Argentino de Merlo - Deportivo Merlo	0:1 ✺
22.03.25	Deportivo Merlo - Argentino de Quilmes	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera B
27.10.24	Ferrocarril Midland - Deportivo Merlo	0:0
09.06.24	Deportivo Merlo - Ferrocarril Midland	0:0
Argentinian Primera C
15.03.20	Deportivo Merlo - Ferrocarril Midland	3:1
21.09.19	Ferrocarril Midland - Deportivo Merlo	0:0
09.03.19	Deportivo Merlo - Ferrocarril Midland	2:1
30.09.18	Ferrocarril Midland - Deportivo Merlo	2:2
30.03.18	Deportivo Merlo - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0

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