Match Info

Primera B - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 12 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Raul Roberto Sabureau Stadium (Buenos Aires)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Ferrocarril Midland		Villa San Carlos

	1	X	2
	1.85	2.9	4.2
	1.88	3.05	4.6	Watch
	1.81	3.05	4.81	Watch
	1.91	2.8	4.5
	1.79	3.13	4.92
	1.88	3.05	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (2.07)	3 ↓ (3.1)	4.61 ↑ (3.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferrocarril Midland
49.5%

Draw
30.6%

Villa San Carlos
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

29.7%

25.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.8%

29.4%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferrocarril Midland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ferrocarril Midland's performance.

Villa San Carlos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Villa San Carlos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferrocarril Midland than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villa San Carlos than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Villa San Carlos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ferrocarril Midland - Villa San Carlos Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferrocarril (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Ferrocarril (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferrocarril (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Maldonado L. (G) 4. Diaz Laharque L. 2. Castorani P. 6. Gigli L. 3. Kruger J. 8. Frattini M. 7. Nunez D. 5. Violini N. 10. Campana A. I. 9. Vico L. 11. Molina F.	1. Bangardino P. (G) 3. Benavidez N. 4. Lloyaiy A. 6. Machin L. 2. Cacace J. 8. Acosta A. 5. Silva J. 10. Cairo F. 11. Samaniego M. 9. Ferro L. 7. Zabala F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Violini N. 🟥,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Meza J. ↓, Lugones A. ↑,
56', Garraza M. 🟨,
68', 1 - 0, Vico L. ⚽,
71', Cacace J. ↓, Lloyaiy A. ↑,
71', Calabria G. ↓, Cucinotta M. ↑,
71', Campana A. I. ↓, Meza F. ↑,
73', 2 - 0, Vico L. ⚽,
75', Ponton A. ↓, Bolech R. ↑,
75', Ferro L. ↓, Guzman L. ↑,
75', Acosta A. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 4 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Super final: Final)).

Ferrocarril is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Villa San Carlos is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Ferrocarril is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ferrocarril won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:2 (average 1:0.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Ferrocarril won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:2 (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferrocarril Midland
Argentinian Primera B
05.04.25	Real Pilar - Ferrocarril Midland	0:1 ✺
30.03.25	Ferrocarril Midland - UAI Urquiza	3:0 ✺
22.03.25	Sportivo Italiano - Ferrocarril Midland	0:1 ✺
09.03.25	Ferrocarril Midland - Excursionistas	0:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
26.02.25	Vélez Sársfield - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WWWTL
- CA Villa San Carlos
Argentinian Primera B
05.04.25	Villa San Carlos - Excursionistas	2:1 ✺
29.03.25	Acassuso - Villa San Carlos	2:1 ✺
23.03.25	Villa San Carlos - Brown de Adrogué	2:1 ✺
18.03.25	Argentino de Merlo - Villa San Carlos	1:0 ✺
08.03.25	Villa San Carlos - Argentino de Quilmes	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera B
24.08.24	Villa San Carlos - Ferrocarril Midland	0:0
08.04.24	Ferrocarril Midland - Villa San Carlos	1:0
Argentinian Primera C
26.05.19	Ferrocarril Midland - Villa San Carlos	1:2
04.05.19	Ferrocarril Midland - Villa San Carlos	2:0
26.11.18	Villa San Carlos - Ferrocarril Midland	0:1

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