Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 15

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard (Saint-Étienne)

Referee: Souifi A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Saint-Étienne		Nancy

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.6	5.25	Watch
	1.55	4.05	5.3
	1.62	4.13	4.88
	1.62	4.06	4.80	Watch
	1.59	4	5.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.62)	3.97 ↓ (4.06)	5.11 ↑ (4.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Saint-Étienne
58.5%

Draw
23.3%

Nancy
18.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.6%

23%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

18.6%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Saint-Étienne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Nancy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saint-Étienne than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Saint-Étienne that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nancy than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nancy could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	6.2%	6.2%

Saint Étienne - Nancy Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Saint-Étienne (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Saint-Étienne will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Saint-Étienne will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Saint-Étienne (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Larsonneur G. (C) 13. Ferreira J. 6. Bernauer M. 3. Nade M. 19. Annan E. 29. Moueffek A. 5. Jaber M. 10. Tardieu F. 7. Cardona I. 20. Boakye A. 22. Davitashvili Z.	1. Basilio E. (G) 21. Mendy E. 14. Saint-Ruf N. (C) 4. Fernandez N. 17. Carlier M. 23. Bamba R. 33. Tacafred E. 6. Bouriaud T. 5. Suljic C. 8. Bouabdelli W. 20. Bokangu B.
Substitutes
8. Appiah D. 31. El Jamali N. 1. Maubleu B. (G) 28. Miladinovic I. 25. N'Guessan D. 11. Old B. 39. Pedro K.	10. Dabasse A. 22. Evans J. 19. Experience M. 12. Julloux A. 40. Lembet G. (G) 11. Sidibe O. 26. Ztouti Z.
Coaches
Horneland E.	Correa P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Carlier M. 🟨,
21', Bamba R. 🟨,
27', 1 - 0, Cardona I. ⚽, Davitashvili Z. (A),
45+3', Boakye A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Saint-Ruf N. ↓, Evans J. ↑,
51', 2 - 0, Tardieu F. (Pen),
57', 2 - 1, Bokangu B. (Pen),
58', Suljic C. ↓, Ztouti Z. ↑,
63', Ztouti Z. 🟨,
67', Bokangu B. ↓, Dabasse A. ↑,
78', Bouabdelli W. ↓, Sidibe O. ↑,
79', Moueffek A. ↓, Miladinovic I. ↑,
82', Ferreira J. 🟨,
84', Cardona I. ↓, N'Guessan D. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Saint-Étienne won 2.

Saint-Étienne has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nancy's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Nancy may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Saint-Étienne has had a series of away games.

In this match, Saint-Étienne is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Saint-Étienne: Bernauer M. (Injury) Ekwah P. (Inactive) Ferreira J. (Injury) Lamba C. (Inactive)

There will not play in Nancy: Camara B. (Injury) Fdaouch Z. (Injury) Kenzo N. (Injury) Tacafred E. (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Saint-Étienne won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 1.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Saint-Étienne won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:1. (average 1.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Saint-Étienne
Coupe De France
15.11.25	Quetigny - Saint-Étienne	1:3 ✺
French Ligue 2
08.11.25	Troyes - Saint-Étienne	2:3 ✺
01.11.25	Red Star - Saint-Étienne	2:1 ✺
28.10.25	Saint-Étienne - Pau	6:0 ✺
25.10.25	Annecy - Saint-Étienne	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWLWL
- AS Nancy Lorraine
French Ligue 2
07.11.25	Nancy - Laval	0:2 ✺
31.10.25	Le Mans - Nancy	1:0 ✺
28.10.25	Nancy - Bastia	2:0 ✺
25.10.25	Montpellier - Nancy	4:1 ✺
20.10.25	Nancy - Amiens	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
20.05.17	Nancy - Saint-Étienne	3:1
21.12.16	Saint-Étienne - Nancy	0:0
French Coupe de la Ligue
14.12.16	Saint-Étienne - Nancy	0:1
Coupe De France
04.01.15	Saint-Étienne - Nancy	1:0 ET
French Ligue 1
23.02.13	Nancy - Saint-Étienne	0:3
05.10.12	Saint-Étienne - Nancy	4:0
13.05.12	Nancy - Saint-Étienne	3:2

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