Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 12

Date: 28 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stade Marcel Picot (Nancy)

Referee: Leleu M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Canada	beIN Connect
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 3, Cablenet Sports 3
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Japan	DAZN Japan
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 10
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Tubi TV


	Nancy		Bastia

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.9	2.9	Watch
	2.48	2.98	2.92
	2.34	3.28	2.84	Watch
	2.52	3	2.97	Watch
	2.45	3.05	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.35)	3.04 ↓ (3.35)	2.97 ↑ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nancy
37.9%

Draw
30.6%

Bastia
31.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

27.8%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

26.8%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nancy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Bastia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nancy than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bastia than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55%	30%	15%

Nancy - Bastia Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Nancy will win (votes: 11 - 55%). Bastia will win (votes: 3 - 15%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nancy: 33.2% – 76.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Nancy (votes: 2 - 40%). Bastia (votes: 2 - 40%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Basilio E. (G) 12. Julloux A. 4. Fernandez N. 14. Saint-Ruf N. (C) 17. Carlier M. 23. Bamba R. 8. Bouabdelli W. 6. Bouriaud T. 20. Bokangu B. 19. Experience M. 29. Ouotro P.	1. Olmeta L. (G) 3. Guevara J. 6. Guidi D. 15. Bohnert F. 5. Ariss Z. 18. Zaouai A. 13. Ducrocq T. 14. Sebas J. 7. Vincent C. (C) 9. Tomi F. 19. Parravicini N.
Substitutes
10. Dabasse A. 22. Evans J. 27. Maouassa F. 77. Nahounou Y. 16. Sourzac M. (G) 5. Suljic C. 26. Ztouti Z.	25. Aiki A. 29. Etoga L. 23. Fabri J. (G) 8. Karamoko I. 24. Meynadier T. 33. Petrignani M. 4. Roncaglia A.
Coaches
Correa P.	Tavenot B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Bokangu B. ⚽, Bouabdelli W. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Zaouai A. ↓, Petrignani M. ↑,
46', Julloux A. 🟨,
49', Sebas J. 🟨,
64', Tomi F. 🟨,
69', Tomi F. ↓, Aiki A. ↑,
69', Sebas J. ↓, Karamoko I. ↑,
70', Parravicini N. ↓, Roncaglia A. ↑,
73', Bouabdelli W. ↓, Ztouti Z. ↑,
81', Guidi D. ↓, Meynadier T. ↑,
84', Bokangu B. ↓, Dabasse A. ↑,
88', Carlier M. ↓, Suljic C. ↑,
89', Bamba R. ↓, Nahounou Y. ↑,
89', Ouotro P. ↓, Evans J. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 0, Saint-Ruf N. ⚽, Bouriaud T. (A),

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ National).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nancy won 3.

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Bastia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Nancy: El Hansar C. (Injury) Kenzo N. (Injury) Mendy E. (Red Card) Nahounou Y. (Inactive) Ouotro P. (Injury) Sidibe O. (Inactive)

There will not play in Bastia: Akueson G. (Knee Injury) Bathily Y. (Injury) Boutrah A. (Injury) Djedje D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Nancy: Fdaouch Z. (Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Nancy won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Nancy won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Nancy Lorraine
French Ligue 2
25.10.25	Montpellier - Nancy	4:1 ✺
20.10.25	Nancy - Amiens	0:1 ✺
03.10.25	Guingamp - Nancy	2:2 ✺
26.09.25	Nancy - Reims	0:1 ✺
23.09.25	Annecy - Nancy	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LLTLW
- SC Bastia
French Ligue 2
17.10.25	Troyes - Bastia	1:0 ✺
03.10.25	Bastia - Dunkerque	0:0 ✺
26.09.25	Grenoble - Bastia	0:0 ✺
23.09.25	Bastia - Rodez	2:3 ✺
20.09.25	Montpellier - Bastia	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Coupe De France
29.11.24	Bastia - Nancy	2:0
French Ligue 2
15.01.22	Nancy - Bastia	2:1
11.08.21	Bastia - Nancy	1:1
French Coupe de la Ligue
08.08.17	Nancy - Bastia	Canceled
French Ligue 1
14.01.17	Nancy - Bastia	1:0
21.09.16	Bastia - Nancy	0:0
18.05.13	Nancy - Bastia	1:2

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