Match Info

Serie C - Group C - Round 8

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Arechi (Salerno)

Referee: Diop A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Uno


	Salernitana		Bari

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.20	3.10	2.80
	2.3	3.15	2.85	Watch
	2.39	3.3	3.03
	2.32	3.21	2.9	Watch
	2.25	3.05	2.95
	2.26	3.61	3.04	Watch
	2.3	3.2	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (2.39)	3.23 ↑ (3.18)	2.92 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Salernitana
40.1%

Draw
28.4%

Bari
31.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

29.2%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

29.9%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Salernitana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Bari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Salernitana than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bari than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Salernitana - Bari Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Galeotti C. (G) 28. Longobardi G. 73. Pieraccini S. 5. Celiento D. 33. Anastasio A. 16. Llano Massa M. T. 8. Tascone M. (C) 6. de Boer K. 32. Vitale M. 11. D'Ursi E. 20. La Gumina A.	31. Cerofolini M. (G) 6. Mogos V. 72. Cocetta N. 79. Elia M. 14. Anzolin M. 5. Darboe E. 44. Mendicino L. 25. Maggiore G. (C) 21. Della Morte M. 7. Butic K. 11. Tribuzzi A.
Substitutes
99. Bevilacqua M. 21. Boncori L. 19. Capuano M. 77. Cardoni K. 1. Cevers L. (G) 27. Del Pin A. 4. Gyabuaa E. 10. Lescano F. 17. Varela Djamanca M. 14. Villa L. 3. Zoia R.	24. Bianchi F. 32. Colangiuli V. 77. Esposito M. 8. Grgic L. 19. Mane M. 3. Mantovani V. 1. Pissardo M. (G) 95. Prisco V. 91. Spadavecchia P.
Coaches
Cosmi S.	Rastelli M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Butic K. (Penalty Awarded),
12', Butic K. 🟨,
37', Vitale M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
57', Longobardi G. ↓, Villa L. ↑,
58', Darboe E. ↓, Grgic L. ↑,
69', de Boer K. ↓, Varela Djamanca M. ↑,
69', La Gumina A. ↓, Lescano F. ↑,
74', Cerofolini M. 🟨,
81', Della Morte M. ↓, Mane M. ↑,
81', Maggiore G. ↓, Colangiuli V. ↑,
83', 1 - 1, Lescano F. ⚽, Vitale M. (A),
83', Lescano F. 🟨,
86', Tribuzzi A. ↓, Esposito M. ↑,
88', 2 - 1, Varela Djamanca M. ⚽,
90+1', D'Ursi E. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 13th and 3rd in the Promotion - Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs (1/8 - finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Salernitana won 0.

Salernitana has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Bari is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Salernitana holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, Salernitana has recorded 0 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 8:14 (averaging 0.8:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Salernitana against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with 5:8 goals (averaging 1:1.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Bari	8	5	1	2	11:6	5	16
5	Salernitana	8	3	3	2	12:10	2	12

Last Results with these Odds

Salernitana - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 38.82%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Bari - the odds 2.9 are the expected chance of winning is 32%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Salernitana 1919
Italian Serie C Group C
26.09.26	Crotone - Salernitana	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Salernitana - Giugliano	1:0 ✺
15.09.26	Barletta - Salernitana	1:1 ✺
11.09.26	Salernitana - Potenza	4:2 ✺
06.09.26	Salernitana - Cavese	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWTWT
- AS Bari
Italian Serie C Group C
26.09.26	Bari - Nuova Cosenza	1:0 ✺
19.09.26	Sorrento - Bari	1:2 ✺
15.09.26	Bari - Potenza	0:0 ✺
11.09.26	Altamura - Bari	0:3 ✺
05.09.26	Bari - Casarano	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
15.03.25	Bari - Salernitana	0:0
10.11.24	Salernitana - Bari	0:2
Club Friendly
31.07.24	Bari - Salernitana	1:1
Italian Serie B
07.04.18	Bari - Salernitana	1:1
04.11.17	Salernitana - Bari	2:2
25.04.17	Salernitana - Bari	0:0
03.12.16	Bari - Salernitana	2:0

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