Match Info

Super Lig - Round 16

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu (Samsun)

Referee: Aksu O. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	TOD
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2


	Samsunspor		İstanbul Başakşehir

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.5	3.6	Watch
	2.07	3.33	3.57
	2.11	3.46	3.78
	2.04	3.51	3.6	Watch
	2.05	3.3	3.4
	2.17	3.6	3.43	Watch
	2.05	3.25	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 (2.06)	3.42 ↓ (3.48)	3.55 ↑ (3.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Samsunspor
45.8%

Draw
27.6%

İstanbul Başakşehir
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.8%

27.1%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.5%

26.7%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Samsunspor have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

İstanbul Başakşehir has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samsunspor than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

The ML Model estimate for İstanbul Başakşehir aligns with the current prediction.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	7.1%	28.6%

Samsunspor - İstanbul Başakşehir Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Samsunspor will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Başakşehir will win (votes: 4 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Samsunspor: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Samsunspor (votes: 2 - 50%). Başakşehir (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Samsunspor (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Başakşehir (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Başakşehir (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - draw (3.96) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Samsunspor (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Başakşehir (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kocuk O. (G) 18. Yavru Z. (C) 37. Satka L. 4. Van Drongelen R. 28. Gonul S. 29. Makoumbou A. 11. Kilinc E. 21. Holse C. 10. Ntcham O. 7. Musaba A. 19. Ndiaye C.	16. Sengezer M. (G) 3. Opoku J. 5. Duarte L. 6. Bulut O. 21. Operi C. 8. Kemen O. 20. Gunes U. 11. Fayzullaev A. 14. Shomurodov E. 25. Harit A. 9. Selke D.
Substitutes
6. Aydin E. 8. Aydogdu S. 24. Borevkovic T. 16. Bulbul T. 55. Cift Y. E. 9. Marius 12. Posiadala A. (G) 17. Tomasson L. 33. Ustun E. (G) 22. Yaldir P.	80. Alemdar D. (G) 27. Ba O. 77. Brnic I. 10. Da Costa N. 36. Ebosele F. 4. Ergun O. 18. Kaluzinski J. 2. Ozdemir B. 42. Sahiner O. 91. Yildirim B.
Coaches
Reis T.	Sahin N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
57', Musaba A. ↓, Aydin E. ↑,
57', Ntcham O. ↓, Yaldir P. ↑,
66', 0 - 1, Shomurodov E. ⚽,
67', Selke D. ↓, Yildirim B. ↑,
67', Fayzullaev A. ↓, Da Costa N. ↑,
67', Kilinc E. ↓, Tomasson L. ↑,
75', Gonul S. ↓, Aydogdu S. ↑,
75', Holse C. ↓, Marius ↑,
77', Harit A. ↓, Brnic I. ↑,
83', 0 - 2, Yildirim B. ⚽, Shomurodov E. (A),
87', Gunes U. ↓, Ergun O. ↑,
87', Shomurodov E. ↓, Ba O. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 6 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Samsunspor won 2.

Samsunspor is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Başakşehir has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Başakşehir may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Samsunspor is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Samsunspor: Cetin B. (Knee Injury) Sousa A. (Ankle Injury) Yuksel C. (Suspended)

There will not play in Başakşehir: Sari Y. (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Samsunspor won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Samsunspor won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:1. (average 0.5:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Samsunspor
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.12.25	Samsunspor - AEK Athens	1:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
05.12.25	Galatasaray - Samsunspor	3:2 ✺
01.12.25	Samsunspor - Alanyaspor	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Breiðablik - Samsunspor	2:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
23.11.25	Beşiktaş - Samsunspor	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LLTTT
- İstanbul Başakşehir
Turkish Super League
06.12.25	İstanbul Başakşehir - Fenerbahçe	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Kasımpaşa - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:3 ✺
24.11.25	İstanbul Başakşehir - Trabzonspor	3:4 ✺
07.11.25	Gençlerbirliği - İstanbul Başakşehir	2:1 ✺
31.10.25	İstanbul Başakşehir - Kocaelispor	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
01.02.25	İstanbul Başakşehir - Samsunspor	4:0
18.09.24	Samsunspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	2:0
03.03.24	İstanbul Başakşehir - Samsunspor	1:0
22.10.23	Samsunspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:0
Turkish First League
11.01.14	İstanbul Başakşehir - Samsunspor	1:3
17.08.13	Samsunspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:1
Turkish Super League
29.01.12	Samsunspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	N/A

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