Match Info

Conference League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 11 December 2025, Thursday

Location: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu (Samsun)

Referee: Pignard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Samsunspor		AEK Athens

	1	X	2
	2.9	3	2.55
	2.92	2.88	2.62
	3.03	3.09	2.71
	2.97	2.97	2.63	Watch
	2.8	3	2.63
	2.91	3.17	2.68
	2.8	2.9	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.47)	3 ↓ (3.23)	2.65 ↓ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Samsunspor
32.7%

Draw
31.6%

AEK Athens
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

28.7%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

30.1%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Samsunspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

AEK Athens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samsunspor than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Samsunspor, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AEK Athens than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	20.8%	29.2%

Samsunspor - AEK Athens Predictions

Users Predictions: 24 users predict this event. Samsunspor will win (votes: 12 - 50%). AEK will win (votes: 7 - 29.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 20.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Samsunspor: 30% – 70%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Samsunspor (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Samsunspor (2.01) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Samsunspor (votes: 2 - 66.7%). AEK (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kocuk O. (G) 18. Yavru Z. (C) 37. Satka L. 4. Van Drongelen R. 17. Tomasson L. 29. Makoumbou A. 11. Kilinc E. 21. Holse C. 10. Ntcham O. 7. Musaba A. 9. Marius	1. Strakosha T. (G) 12. Rota L. 2. Moukoudi H. 44. Relvas F. 3. Pilios S. 18. Marin R. 13. Pineda O. 37. Pereyra R. 11. Koita A. 20. Mantalos P. (C) 9. Jovic L.
Substitutes
8. Aydogdu S. 24. Borevkovic T. 16. Bulbul T. 99. Ceesay E. 55. Cift Y. E. 28. Gonul S. 2. Mendes J. 12. Posiadala A. (G) 48. Toruz E. B. (G) 22. Yaldir P.	81. Angelopoulos A. (G) 91. Brignoli A. (G) 55. Chrysopoulos K. 19. Eliasson N. 4. Grujic M. 34. Kosidis C. 7. Kutesa D. 29. Penrice J. 21. Vida D.
Coaches
Reis T.	Nikolic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Moukoudi H. (Own goal),
7', Marin R. 🟨,
33', Satka L. 🟨,
44', Mantalos P. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Moukoudi H. ↓, Vida D. ↑,
52', 1 - 1, Marin R. ⚽,
57', Pineda O. 🟨,
64', 1 - 2, Koita A. ⚽, Rota L. (A),
74', Musaba A. ↓, Bulbul T. ↑,
76', Jovic L. 🟨,
78', Ntcham O. ↓, Aydogdu S. ↑,
78', Yavru Z. ↓, Mendes J. ↑,
82', Mantalos P. ↓, Grujic M. ↑,
84', Koita A. ↓, Eliasson N. ↑,
86', Tomasson L. ↓, Ceesay E. ↑,
90+3', Marin R. ↓, Penrice J. ↑,

Preview

In recent matches, Samsunspor has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

AEK is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

AEK may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Samsunspor: Aydin E. (Inactive) Coulibaly T. (Knee Injury) Ndiaye C. (Inactive) Satka L. (Injury) Sousa A. (Ankle Injury) Ustun E. (Inactive) Yuksel C. (Suspended)

There will not play in AEK: Jonsson J. (Inactive) Kaloskamis D. (Inactive) Kolimatsis C. (Inactive) Kutesa D. (Inactive) Mitoglou G. (Inactive) Odubajo M. (Inactive) Pierrot F. (Injury) Zini (Injury)

There are questionable in Samsunspor: Ceesay E. (Injury) Cetin B. (Knee Injury)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Samsunspor
Turkish Super League
05.12.25	Galatasaray - Samsunspor	3:2 ✺
01.12.25	Samsunspor - Alanyaspor	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Breiðablik - Samsunspor	2:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
23.11.25	Beşiktaş - Samsunspor	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Samsunspor - Eyüpspor	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LTTTW
- AEK Athens
Greek Super League
07.12.25	AEK Athens - Atromitos Athens	4:1 ✺
Greek Cup
03.12.25	AEK Athens - OFI	2:0 ✺
Greek Super League
30.11.25	Panathinaikos - AEK Athens	2:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Fiorentina - AEK Athens	0:1 ✺
Greek Super League
23.11.25	AEK Athens - Aris	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 WWWWW

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