Match Info

Super Lig - Round 15

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Location: Rams Park (Istanbul)

Referee: Turkmen M. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, TOD
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	SportKlub 2
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 9, Free
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Hungary	Sport 2
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kenya	Gotv
Laos	beIN Connect
Mexico	Disney+
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 1
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+


	Galatasaray		Samsunspor

	1	X	2
	1.49	4.2	5.75	Watch
	1.5	4.51	5.65
	1.53	4.59	5.94
	1.49	4.64	6.1	Watch
	1.5	4.2	5.75
	1.54	4.51	6.29	Watch
	1.48	4.2	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↑ (1.44)	4.41 ↓ (4.75)	5.93 ↓ (6.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Galatasaray
62.7%

Draw
21.4%

Samsunspor
15.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.7%

19.9%

14.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.6%

21.4%

13.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Galatasaray has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Samsunspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Galatasaray than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Galatasaray, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Samsunspor than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	16.7%	11.9%

Galatasaray - Samsunspor Predictions

Users Predictions: 39 users predict this event. Galatasaray will win (votes: 29 - 74.4%). Samsunspor will win (votes: 3 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 17.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Galatasaray: 60.7% – 88.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Galatasaray (2.34) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 7 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Galatasaray will win (16 of 17 users predict this - 94.12%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 20 Selected Experts predict this event. Galatasaray (votes: 19 - 95%). Tie (votes: 1 - 5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cakir U. (G) 6. Sanchez D. 99. Lemina M. 42. Bardakci A. (C) 88. Karatas K. 34. Torreira L. 8. Gabriel Sara 10. Sane L. 20. Gundogan I. 53. Yilmaz B. A. 45. Osimhen V.	1. Kocuk O. (G) 18. Yavru Z. (C) 24. Borevkovic T. 4. Van Drongelen R. 17. Tomasson L. 29. Makoumbou A. 11. Kilinc E. 21. Holse C. 6. Aydin E. 7. Musaba A. 19. Ndiaye C.
Substitutes
11. Akgun Y. 72. Balta C. 30. Demir Y. 33. Gurpuz G. 19. Guvenc G. (G) 9. Icardi M. 18. Kutlu B. 21. Kutucu A. 12. Sen B. (G) 91. Unyay A.	8. Aydogdu S. 16. Bulbul T. 55. Cift Y. E. 28. Gonul S. 9. Marius 10. Ntcham O. 12. Posiadala A. (G) 48. Toruz E. B. (G) 22. Yaldir P.
Coaches
Buruk O.	Reis T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Sane L. ⚽, Torreira L. (A),
29', 2 - 0, Osimhen V. ⚽, Sane L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Aydin E. ↓, Ntcham O. ↑,
46', Lemina M. ↓, Unyay A. ↑,
56', 2 - 1, Musaba A. ⚽, Kilinc E. (A),
68', Gundogan I. ↓, Akgun Y. ↑,
81', Tomasson L. ↓, Marius ↑,
83', Van Drongelen R. 🟨,
84', Gabriel Sara ↓, Kutlu B. ↑,
87', Kutlu B. 🟨,
88', 2 - 2, Kilinc E. ⚽,
90+1', Unyay A. ↓, Icardi M. ↑,
90+1', Ndiaye C. ↓, Cift Y. E. ↑,
90+2', 3 - 2, Osimhen V. ⚽, Akgun Y. (A),
90+8', Kilinc E. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 5).

Galatasaray has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Samsunspor is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Galatasaray is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Galatasaray: Baltaci M. (Suspended) Elmali E. (Suspended) Jakobs I. (Injury) Singo W. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Samsunspor: Coulibaly T. (Knee Injury) Mendes J. (Red Card) Ntcham O. (Hamstring Injury) Satka L. (Injury) Sousa A. (Ankle Injury) Yuksel C. (Suspended)

There are questionable in Samsunspor: Ceesay E. (Injury) Cetin B. (Knee Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Galatasaray won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 2.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Galatasaray won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 3.5:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Galatasaray
Turkish Super League
01.12.25	Fenerbahçe - Galatasaray	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.11.25	Galatasaray - Saint-Gilloise	0:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
22.11.25	Galatasaray - Gençlerbirliği	3:2 ✺
09.11.25	Kocaelispor - Galatasaray	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Ajax - Galatasaray	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 TLWLW
- Samsunspor
Turkish Super League
01.12.25	Samsunspor - Alanyaspor	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.11.25	Breiðablik - Samsunspor	2:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
23.11.25	Beşiktaş - Samsunspor	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Samsunspor - Eyüpspor	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.11.25	Samsunspor - Hamrun Spartans	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
11.04.25	Samsunspor - Galatasaray	0:2
10.11.24	Galatasaray - Samsunspor	3:2
02.02.24	Samsunspor - Galatasaray	0:2
16.09.23	Galatasaray - Samsunspor	4:2

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