Match Info

Super Lig - Round 3

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu (Samsun)

Referee: Kol Y. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Albania	SuperSport 4
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA 2
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Laola1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, SportKlub 5
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Germany	Laola1
Hong-kong	beIN Connect
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Kosovo	ART Sport 6
Malaysia	beIN Connect
Mexico	Disney+
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect
Romania	Prima Sport 4, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Singapore	beIN Connect, beIN Sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 5
South-africa	SuperSport Africa 2
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+


	Samsunspor		Fenerbahçe

	1	X	2
	5.25	4.1	1.53	Watch
	5.25	4.20	1.55
	5.1	3.97	1.58	Watch
	5.8	4.2	1.61
	5.38	4.17	1.59
	5.55	4.05	1.6
	5.8	4.26	1.61	Watch
	4.8	4	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.37 ↑ (4.98)	4.12 ↓ (4.15)	1.58 ↓ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Samsunspor
17.5%

Draw
22.8%

Fenerbahçe
59.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.9%

22.7%

58.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.9%

24%

61.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Samsunspor has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Fenerbahçe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Samsunspor than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Samsunspor - Fenerbahçe Predictions

Users Predictions: Fenerbahçe will win (17 of 17 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kocuk O. (G) 2. Mendes J. 24. Borevkovic T. 34. Guarino G. 17. Tomasson L. 5. Yuksel C. 4. Watt E. 30. Jarju S. 20. Kayan Y. 11. Kilinc E. (C) 14. Kaya F.	31. Ederson (G) 27. Semedo N. 37. Skriniar M. (C) 15. Ake N. 3. Brown A. 91. Kante N. 6. Guendouzi M. 11. Greenwood M. 17. Kahveci I. 70. Aydin O. 19. Muriqi V.
Substitutes
23. Albak E. 25. Bayazit B. (G) 70. Bulbul T. 22. Cift Y. E. 21. Degirmenci E. 3. Drapinski I. 8. Onur S. 42. Sekongo A. 77. Sousa A. 72. Tan M.	13. Cetin T. (G) 14. Demir Y. E. 28. Elmaz B. 34. Gunok M. (G) 9. Lukaku R. 22. Mercan L. 18. Muldur M. 45. Nene D. 21. Peprah K. 5. Yuksek I.
Coaches
Fink T.	Kartal I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Muriqi V. ⚽, Aydin O. (A),
16', Kaya F. ↓, Sekongo A. ↑,
25', Fink T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Borevkovic T. ↓, Cift Y. E. ↑,
50', 0 - 2, Aydin O. ⚽, Kahveci I. (A),
64', Muriqi V. ↓, Lukaku R. ↑,
64', Greenwood M. ↓, Yuksek I. ↑,
66', Kayan Y. ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
70', Lukaku R. 🟨,
78', Kahveci I. ↓, Nene D. ↑,
86', Aydin O. ↓, Mercan L. ↑,
86', Guendouzi M. ↓, Elmaz B. ↑,
86', Yuksel C. ↓, Onur S. ↑,
86', Jarju S. ↓, Bulbul T. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Samsunspor won 0.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Samsunspor may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Samsunspor has had a series of away games.

In this match, Fenerbahçe is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Samsunspor: Assoumou J. (Inactive) Cift Y. E. (Inactive) Coulibaly T. (Inactive) Drapinski I. (Inactive) Tavsan E. (Inactive)

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Akturkoglu K. (Concussion) Asensio M. (Muscle Injury) Gunok M. (Muscle Injury) Oosterwolde J. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Samsunspor: Makoumbou A. (Inactive) Marius (Inactive) Sousa A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Fenerbahçe: Soyuncu C. (Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Samsunspor won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:14. (average 0.9:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Samsunspor won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fenerbahce	7	4	1	2	19:6	13	13
16	Samsunspor	7	1	1	5	6:15	-9	4

Last Results with these Odds

Fenerbahçe - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 58.44%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Samsunspor
Turkish Super League
22.08.26	Çaykur Rizespor - Samsunspor	0:2 ✺
17.08.26	Samsunspor - Göztepe	3:3 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Westerlo - Samsunspor	1:2 ✺
29.07.26	AEK Athens - Samsunspor	1:2 ✺
25.07.26	RAAL La Louvière - Samsunspor	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WTWWT
- Fenerbahçe
UEFA Champions League
26.08.26	Lyon - Fenerbahçe	1:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
22.08.26	Fenerbahçe - Konyaspor	4:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.08.26	Fenerbahçe - Lyon	1:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
15.08.26	Gençlerbirliği - Fenerbahçe	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.08.26	Sturm Graz - Fenerbahçe	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
08.03.26	Fenerbahçe - Samsunspor	3:2
Turkish Super Cup
06.01.26	Fenerbahçe - Samsunspor	2:0
Turkish Super League
05.10.25	Samsunspor - Fenerbahçe	0:0
16.03.25	Fenerbahçe - Samsunspor	0:0
20.10.24	Samsunspor - Fenerbahçe	2:2
21.01.24	Fenerbahçe - Samsunspor	1:1
21.08.23	Samsunspor - Fenerbahçe	0:2

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