Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - Final

Date: 18 August 2026, Tuesday

Location: Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu (Istanbul)

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Fenerbahçe		Lyon

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.50	3.50
	2.00	3.50	3.60
	2.07	3.40	3.40
	2.11	3.51	3.71
	2	3.61	3.78
	2.00	3.50	3.80
	1.96	3.59	3.80
	2.04	3.45	3.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.84)	3.51 ↑ (3.39)	3.65 ↑ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fenerbahçe
47%

Draw
27%

Lyon
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

26.1%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.1%

24.6%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fenerbahçe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Lyon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.8%	17%	13.2%

Fenerbahçe - Lyon Predictions

Users Predictions: 53 users predict this event. Fenerbahçe will win (votes: 37 - 69.8%). Lyon will win (votes: 7 - 13.2%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 17%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fenerbahçe: 57.4% – 82.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Fenerbahçe (votes: 1 - 25%). Lyon (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Ederson (G) 27. Semedo N. 37. Skriniar M. (C) 15. Ake N. 3. Brown A. 91. Kante N. 6. Guendouzi M. 11. Greenwood M. 94. Talisca 7. Akturkoglu K. 19. Muriqi V.	1. Greif D. (G) 98. Maitland-Niles A. 21. Kluivert R. 19. Niakhate M. 16. Abner Vinicius 8. Tolisso C. (C) 6. Tessmann T. 23. Morton T. 7. Nuamah E. 17. Openda L. 11. Fofana M.
Substitutes
10. Asensio M. 70. Aydin O. 13. Cetin T. (G) 14. Demir Y. E. 28. Elmaz B. 17. Kahveci I. 9. Lukaku R. 22. Mercan L. 18. Muldur M. 45. Nene D. 75. Sapaz K. (G) 5. Yuksek I.	13. Athekame Z. 20. Bacher F. 25. Bengui J. (G) 2. Bidstrup M. 26. Boudache K. 39. de Carvalho M. 40. Descamps R. (G) 24. Duranville J. 45. Himbert R. 22. Mata C. 99. Nartey N. 76. Ouedraogo M.
Coaches
Kartal I.	Fonseca P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
37', Abner Vinicius 🟨,
40', 0 - 1, Openda L. ⚽, Tolisso C. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 1 - 1, Greenwood M. ⚽, Akturkoglu K. (A),
73', Akturkoglu K. ↓, Nene D. ↑,
73', Talisca ↓, Asensio M. ↑,
75', Kluivert R. ↓, Mata C. ↑,
75', Nuamah E. ↓, Boudache K. ↑,
81', Kante N. 🟨,
82', Muriqi V. ↓, Lukaku R. ↑,
84', Skriniar M. 🟨,
86', Morton T. ↓, Bidstrup M. ↑,
90+1', Fofana M. ↓, Ouedraogo M. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

Fenerbahçe is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Lyon has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lyon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Fenerbahçe will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Demir E. (Inactive) Diego Carlos (Inactive) Diouf A. (Lacking Match Fitness) Fayed O. (Inactive) Mimovic O. (Inactive) Musaba A. (Injury) Oosterwolde J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Rodrigo Becao (Inactive) Under C. (Inactive) Yandas M. (Inactive) Yesilyurt A. (Inactive)

There will not play in Lyon: Merah K. (Ankle Injury) Sulc P. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Fenerbahçe: Gunok M. (Muscle Injury) Soyuncu C. (Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Fenerbahçe won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0. (average 0:0).

Including home matches between the teams, Fenerbahçe won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0. (average 0:0).

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Fenerbahce: 0.55% Lyon: 0.37%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
20	Fenerbahce	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Super League
15.08.26	Gençlerbirliği - Fenerbahçe	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.08.26	Sturm Graz - Fenerbahçe	0:1 ✺
05.08.26	Fenerbahçe - Sturm Graz	2:0 ✺
29.07.26	Górnik Zabrze - Fenerbahçe	1:1 ✺
21.07.26	Fenerbahçe - Górnik Zabrze	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWWTW
- Olympique Lyon
UEFA Champions League
11.08.26	Lyon - Sparta Prague	3:0 ✺
04.08.26	Sparta Prague - Lyon	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
29.07.26	Betis - Lyon	4:0 ✺
24.07.26	Wolfsburg - Lyon	0:2 ✺
15.07.26	Lyon - Servette	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa League
23.01.25	Fenerbahçe - Lyon	0:0
Club Friendly
16.07.16	Fenerbahçe - Lyon	Canceled

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