Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - Final

Date: 26 August 2026, Wednesday

Location: Parc Olympique Lyonnais (Lyon)

Referee: Mariani M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lyon		Fenerbahçe

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.40	3.40
	2.00	3.60	3.60
	1.89	3.50	3.90
	2.06	3.59	3.83
	1.95	3.69	3.78
	2.04	3.45	3.65
	1.97	3.56	3.78
	2.01	3.50	3.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (1.99)	3.54 ↑ (3.51)	3.68 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lyon
47.6%

Draw
26.7%

Fenerbahçe
25.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.4%

26.8%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

27.4%

25.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lyon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Fenerbahçe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.6%	20.8%	5.7%

Lyon - Fenerbahçe Predictions

Users Predictions: 52 users predict this event. Lyon will win (votes: 38 - 73.1%). Fenerbahçe will win (votes: 3 - 5.8%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 21.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lyon: 61% – 85.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Lyon (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (2.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Lyon (1.41) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Lyon (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Greif D. (G) 98. Maitland-Niles A. 21. Kluivert R. 19. Niakhate M. 16. Abner Vinicius 6. Tessmann T. 23. Morton T. 8. Tolisso C. (C) 7. Nuamah E. 17. Openda L. 11. Fofana M.	31. Ederson (G) 27. Semedo N. 37. Skriniar M. (C) 15. Ake N. 3. Brown A. 91. Kante N. 6. Guendouzi M. 11. Greenwood M. 94. Talisca 70. Aydin O. 19. Muriqi V.
Substitutes
13. Athekame Z. 20. Bacher F. 2. Bidstrup M. 26. Boudache K. 39. de Carvalho M. 40. Descamps R. (G) 45. Himbert R. 22. Mata C. 99. Nartey N. 76. Ouedraogo M. 10. Sulc P. 3. Tagliafico N.	13. Cetin T. (G) 14. Demir Y. E. 28. Elmaz B. 17. Kahveci I. 9. Lukaku R. 22. Mercan L. 18. Muldur M. 45. Nene D. 75. Sapaz K. (G) 5. Yuksek I.
Coaches
Fonseca P.	Kartal I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
24', 0 - 1, Muriqi V. ⚽,
28', 0 - 2, Brown A. ⚽, Greenwood M. (A),
32', Skriniar M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', Openda L. 🟨,
61', 1 - 2, Fofana M. ⚽, Maitland-Niles A. (A),
62', Maitland-Niles A. ↓, Athekame Z. ↑,
62', Nuamah E. ↓, Boudache K. ↑,
67', Talisca ↓, Yuksek I. ↑,
76', Tessmann T. ↓, Sulc P. ↑,
76', Aydin O. ↓, Nene D. ↑,
80', Greenwood M. ↓, Kahveci I. ↑,
80', Muriqi V. ↓, Lukaku R. ↑,
86', Morton T. ↓, Bidstrup M. ↑,
86', Abner Vinicius ↓, Tagliafico N. ↑,
90+4', Guendouzi M. 🟨,
90+5', Nene D. 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-1.

Recent performances by Lyon have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Fenerbahçe is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Fenerbahçe may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Lyon has had a series of away games.

Lyon is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Akturkoglu K. (Concussion) Asensio M. (Muscle Injury) Diego Carlos (Inactive) Diouf A. (Lacking Match Fitness) Gunok M. (Muscle Injury) Livakovic D. (Transfer negotiations) Mimovic O. (Inactive) Oosterwolde J. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Rodrigo Becao (Inactive) Soyuncu C. (Injury) Under C. (Inactive) Yandas M. (Inactive) Yesilyurt A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Lyon: Merah K. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.3:0.3).

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Fenerbahce: 0.59% Lyon: 0.37%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
20	Fenerbahce	1	0	1	0	1:1	0	1

Last Results with these Odds

Lyon - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 47.36%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Lyon
French Ligue 1
22.08.26	Toulouse - Lyon	0:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.08.26	Fenerbahçe - Lyon	1:1 ✺
11.08.26	Lyon - Sparta Prague	3:0 ✺
04.08.26	Sparta Prague - Lyon	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
29.07.26	Betis - Lyon	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WTWLL
- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Super League
22.08.26	Fenerbahçe - Konyaspor	4:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.08.26	Fenerbahçe - Lyon	1:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
15.08.26	Gençlerbirliği - Fenerbahçe	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
11.08.26	Sturm Graz - Fenerbahçe	0:1 ✺
05.08.26	Fenerbahçe - Sturm Graz	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
18.08.26	Fenerbahçe - Lyon	1:1
UEFA Europa League
23.01.25	Fenerbahçe - Lyon	0:0
Club Friendly
16.07.16	Fenerbahçe - Lyon	Canceled

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