Match Info

Date: 23 October 2022, Sunday


	San Donato Tavarnelle		Pontedera

	1	X	2
	3	3	2.15
	3.1	3	2.2
	3.05	2.9	2.21
	3.22	3.01	2.23
	3.2	2.9	2.2
	3.14	3.14	2.19	Watch
	3.15	3.1	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (2.47)	3.01 ↑ (2.84)	2.21 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Donato Tavarnelle
29%

Draw
30.1%

Pontedera
41%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

31.3%

32.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

29.8%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Donato Tavarnelle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Donato Tavarnelle's form might have worsened.

Pontedera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Pontedera's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Donato Tavarnelle than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Donato Tavarnelle, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pontedera than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Pontedera, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	25%	62.5%

San Donato Tavarnelle - Pontedera Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. San Donato will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Pontedera will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pontedera: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 18 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out and 16 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

San Donato has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Pontedera is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Pontedera will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Donato Tavarnelle
Italian Serie C Group B
19.10.22	Fermana - San Donato Tavarnelle	1:1 ✺
16.10.22	San Donato Tavarnelle - Alessandria	0:1 ✺
09.10.22	Vis Pesaro - San Donato Tavarnelle	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
05.10.22	Viterbese - San Donato Tavarnelle	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
02.10.22	San Donato Tavarnelle - Lucchese	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 TLLLL
- US Pontedera
Italian Serie C Group B
19.10.22	Pontedera - Recanatese	0:0 ✺
16.10.22	Carrarese - Pontedera	1:0 ✺
09.10.22	Alessandria - Pontedera	2:3 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
05.10.22	Siena - Pontedera	0:1 ET ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
01.10.22	Pontedera - Siena	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 TLWWL

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