Match Info

Date: 22 October 2022, Saturday

Location: Estadio Pedro Bidegain (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Penel A. (Arg)


	San Lorenzo		Aldosivi

	1	X	2
	1.18	7	17
	1.17	6.75	18.5
	1.15	7	21
	1.16	6.2	18
	1.17	7.05	23.97
	1.15	7.2	20.5	Watch
	1.15	6.2	18
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.16 ↓ (1.44)	6.77 ↑ (4.13)	19.57 ↑ (7.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Lorenzo
81.2%

Draw
13.9%

Aldosivi
4.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.8%

22.6%

12.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.4%

21.4%

11.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Lorenzo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in San Lorenzo's performance.

Aldosivi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aldosivi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (-12.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with San Lorenzo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aldosivi than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aldosivi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	0%	41.7%

San Lorenzo - Aldosivi Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. San Lorenzo will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Aldosivi will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for San Lorenzo: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

San Lorenzo has the most likely position - 7 (37.07%), has project points - 42, has currently - 40, has not chance of win league.

Aldosivi has the most likely position - 28 (100%), has project points - 17, has currently - 16, has not chance of win league.

This event has small quality 29, very small importance 0, small match rating 15. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches San Lorenzo won 2.

San Lorenzo in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Aldosivi is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match San Lorenzo is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches San Lorenzo won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10-10.

Including matches at home between the teams San Lorenzo won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Lorenzo
Argentinian Liga Profesional
17.10.22	Sarmiento de Junín - San Lorenzo	2:4 ✺
12.10.22	Gimnasia La Plata - San Lorenzo	0:1 ✺
08.10.22	San Lorenzo - Vélez Sársfield	1:0 ✺
04.10.22	Godoy Cruz - San Lorenzo	0:0 ✺
01.10.22	San Lorenzo - Huracán Buenos Aires	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.9 WWWTW
- CA Aldosivi
Argentinian Liga Profesional
16.10.22	Aldosivi - Talleres de Córdoba	1:3 ✺
12.10.22	Aldosivi - Banfield	0:1 ✺
09.10.22	Boca Juniors - Aldosivi	2:1 ✺
04.10.22	Aldosivi - Barracas Central	2:0 ✺
30.09.22	Tigre - Aldosivi	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
23.11.21	Aldosivi - San Lorenzo	2:0
Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional
21.03.21	San Lorenzo - Aldosivi	1:2
07.12.20	San Lorenzo - Aldosivi	0:0
14.11.20	Aldosivi - San Lorenzo	1:4
Argentinian Liga Profesional
01.03.20	Aldosivi - San Lorenzo	1:3
02.12.18	Aldosivi - San Lorenzo	2:2
21.05.17	San Lorenzo - Aldosivi	0:1

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