Match Info

Campionato Sammarinese - Round 16

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday


	San Marino Academy U22		AC Libertas

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.5	1.82
	3.6	3.6	1.88
	3.4	3.4	1.85
	3.44	3.85	1.93
	3.4	3.5	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.49 ↑ (2.58)	3.57 ↑ (3.4)	1.87 ↓ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Marino Academy U22
26%

Draw
25.4%

AC Libertas
48.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

26.4%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

25.1%

36.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Marino Academy U22 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Marino Academy U22's form might have worsened.

AC Libertas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting AC Libertas's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Marino Academy U22 than the current prediction. (+10.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Marino Academy U22, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AC Libertas than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AC Libertas, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

San Marino Academy U22 - AC Libertas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Dell Balda E. ⚽, Gasperoni M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 and 12).

San Marino Academy is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

AC Libertas is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, San Marino Academy won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, San Marino Academy won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Libertas	4	1	2	1	4:5	-1	5
15	San Marino Academy U22	4	0	2	2	1:5	-4	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Marino Academy U22
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
20.12.25	San Marino Academy U22 - Folgore	0:3 ✺
13.12.25	San Marino Academy U22 - San Giovanni	1:1 ✺
07.12.25	Fiorentino - San Marino Academy U22	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	San Marino Academy U22 - Juvenes-Dogana	0:2 ✺
23.11.25	Domagnano - San Marino Academy U22	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTLLL
- AC Libertas
San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
21.12.25	Tre Penne - AC Libertas	5:0 ✺
13.12.25	AC Libertas - Tre Fiori	0:4 ✺
06.12.25	Juvenes-Dogana - AC Libertas	0:1 ✺
30.11.25	AC Libertas - Fiorentino	0:1 ✺
23.11.25	Cosmos - AC Libertas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.8 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

San Marino Campionato Sammarinese
29.08.25	AC Libertas - San Marino Academy U22	1:1
01.02.25	AC Libertas - San Marino Academy U22	3:1
27.09.24	San Marino Academy U22 - AC Libertas	0:1
10.02.24	San Marino Academy U22 - AC Libertas	1:1

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