Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 18

Date: 14 June 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Abel Sastre (Puerto Madryn)


	Deportivo Madryn		San Miguel

	1	X	2
	2.30	2.85	3.40	Watch
	2.40	2.80	3.00
	2.48	2.85	3.15	Watch
	2.40	3.03	3.56
	3.02	2.75	2.71	Watch
	2.30	2.80	3.30
	2.34	2.89	3.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (1.84)	2.85 ↓ (3.09)	3.21 ↓ (4.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Madryn
38%

Draw
32.8%

San Miguel
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

29.7%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.2%

29%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Madryn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo Madryn's form might have worsened.

San Miguel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting San Miguel's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Madryn than the current prediction. (+13.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportivo Madryn, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Miguel than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for San Miguel, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Deportivo Madryn - San Miguel Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Deportivo Madryn will win (votes: 2 - 50%). San Miguel will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bonnin Y. (G) 2. Giacopuzzi F. 3. Ayala E. 4. Sosa A. 6. Ortiz N. D. 5. Recalde F. 8. Meli M. 11. Machado C. 7. Gudino G. 9. Silba L. 10. Solis N.	1. Ledesma Reynoso M. (G) 4. Adin D. 2. Cardozo F. 6. Ceceri K. 3. Cruz A. 5. Desabato L. 8. Serra M. 7. Diaz T. 10. Almeida F. 11. Delgado L. 9. Nasta B.
Substitutes
20. Bonacci P. . Calleros Y. 17. Cuero M. 14. Gutierrez A. 16. Jara E. . Martinez A. . Martinez D. 12. Montero M. (G) 19. Servetto N.	13. Aguirre F. 16. Coronel F. 17. De la Cruz E. 15. Ferrero J. 20. Gordillo T. 19. Jerez T. 18. Ramirez I. 14. Renteria D. 12. Sosa R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Silba L. ⚽,
35', Serra M. 🟨,
37', Adin D. 🟨,
42', Giacopuzzi F. 🟨,
45', Cruz A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Almeida F. ↓, Ferrero J. ↑,
56', 1 - 1, Nasta B. ⚽, Ferrero J. (A),
58', Nasta B. 🟥,
61', Diaz T. ↓, De la Cruz E. ↑,
61', Desabato L. ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
64', Meli M. ↓, Cuero M. ↑,
64', Machado C. ↓, Servetto N. ↑,
68', 1 - 2, Delgado L. ⚽, Cruz A. (A),
74', Gudino G. ↓, Jara E. ↑,
78', 2 - 2, Solis N. ⚽,
81', Delgado L. ↓, Coronel F. ↑,
81', Adin D. ↓, Renteria D. ↑,
86', Ayala E. ↓, Bonacci P. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 11).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

San Miguel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Deportivo Madryn is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Madryn won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Madryn won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Madryn
Argentinian Primera Nacional
07.06.26	San Telmo - Deportivo Madryn	0:0 ✺
31.05.26	Deportivo Madryn - Acassuso	0:0 ✺
24.05.26	Chaco For Ever - Deportivo Madryn	1:2 ✺
17.05.26	Deportivo Madryn - Ferro Carril Oeste	0:1 ✺
10.05.26	Central Norte - Deportivo Madryn	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 TTWLW
- CA San Miguel
Argentinian Primera Nacional
06.06.26	San Miguel - Defensores de Belgrano	0:0 ✺
31.05.26	Ciudad de Bolívar - San Miguel	1:1 ✺
23.05.26	San Miguel - Almirante Brown	1:0 ✺
17.05.26	Mitre - San Miguel	4:0 ✺
09.05.26	San Miguel - Estudiantes de Caseros	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
05.07.25	San Miguel - Deportivo Madryn	1:1
02.03.25	Deportivo Madryn - San Miguel	2:1
03.11.24	Deportivo Madryn - San Miguel	0:0

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