Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 30

Date: 5 September 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Malvinas Argentinas (Buenos Aires)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	San Miguel		Club Almagro

	1	X	2
	1.96	2.82	4.75	Watch
	1.75	2.95	5.25
	2.05	2.72	4.25	Watch
	2	2.77	5.19
	2.12	2.60	4.69	Watch
	1.98	2.85	4.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↑ (1.83)	2.79 ↑ (2.74)	4.81 ↓ (5.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Miguel
47.1%

Draw
33.5%

Club Almagro
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

33.7%

15.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

32.6%

15.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Miguel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Club Almagro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Miguel than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Club Almagro than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

San Miguel - Club Almagro Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. San Miguel will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Almagro will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for San Miguel: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. San Miguel (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sappa D. (G) 2. Parnisari E. 4. Kippes A. (C) 6. Cardozo F. 3. Grance I. 7. Antunes I. 8. Juarez J. 5. Cravero T. 11. Salto C. 9. Nasta B. 10. Dening E.	1. Gonzalez E. (G) 4. Garcia M. 6. Rios R. 3. Pinto M. 2. Vitale J. (C) 5. Jerez Silva L. 8. Castro T. 10. Lattanzio C. 7. Puca D. 11. Cucchi P. 9. Rodriguez A.
Substitutes
13. Corda S. 14. D. Renteria 15. Ferrero J. 20. Lavezzi A. 12. Lungarzo J. (G) 17. Mosca C. 18. Rodriguez Trezza L. 16. Sena F. 19. Sosa D.	18. Baldunciel L. 16. Chaves A. 17. Diosquez N. 19. Dornell T. 12. Limousin C. (G) 20. Lopez T. 15. Luayza M. 14. Rimbelitti A. 13. Yegros U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', 1 - 0, Dening E. ⚽,
31', Garcia M. 🟨,
37', Dening E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', 1 - 1, Rodriguez A. ⚽, Garcia M. (A),
50', Vitale J. 🟨,
57', Jerez Silva L. 🟨,
66', Salto C. ↓, Ferrero J. ↑,
66', Grance I. ↓, Corda S. ↑,
72', Puca D. ↓, Luayza M. ↑,
72', Cucchi P. ↓, Dornell T. ↑,
90', 🟨,
90+1', 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 14).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, San Miguel is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, San Miguel won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA San Miguel
Argentinian Primera Nacional
31.08.25	Los Andes - San Miguel	0:0 ✺
22.08.25	Quilmes - San Miguel	2:0 ✺
17.08.25	San Miguel - Racing de Córdoba	1:0 ✺
10.08.25	Atlanta Buenos Aires - San Miguel	1:1 ✺
02.08.25	San Miguel - Colegiales	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TLWTW
- Club Almagro
Argentinian Primera Nacional
31.08.25	Club Almagro - Quilmes	2:2 ✺
24.08.25	Racing de Córdoba - Club Almagro	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Club Almagro - Atlanta Buenos Aires	0:0 ✺
09.08.25	Colegiales - Club Almagro	2:0 ✺
02.08.25	Club Almagro - Arsenal Sarandí	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
03.05.25	Club Almagro - San Miguel	1:0

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