Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 10 - Round 19

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday


	San Roque de Lepe		Castilleja

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.4	4.65
	1.79	3.32	4.4
	1.76	3.38	4.45	Watch
	1.75	3.1	4.5
	1.7	3.26	4.85
	1.77	3.25	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.6)	3.29 ↓ (3.55)	4.53 ↓ (5.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Roque de Lepe
52.3%

Draw
27.6%

Castilleja
20.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.9%

25.6%

17.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55%

24.8%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Roque de Lepe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Castilleja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Roque de Lepe than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castilleja than the current prediction. (-2%)

San Roque de Lepe - Castilleja Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', 1 - 0, Ritore ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90', 2 - 0, Lillo J. ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

San Roque de Lepe has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Castilleja is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

San Roque de Lepe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, San Roque de Lepe is the clear favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, San Roque de Lepe won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	San Roque	5	2	1	2	5:6	-1	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- San Roque de Lepe
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
18.01.26	Coria CF - San Roque de Lepe	1:0 ✺
10.01.26	Ceuta B - San Roque de Lepe	0:0 ✺
04.01.26	San Roque de Lepe - Córdoba B	4:1 ✺
21.12.25	Chiclana - San Roque de Lepe	1:0 ✺
14.12.25	San Roque de Lepe - Conil	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTWLW
- Castilleja CF
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
18.01.26	Castilleja - Tomares	1:0 ✺
11.01.26	Coria CF - Castilleja	1:1 ✺
03.01.26	Castilleja - Ceuta B	3:1 ✺
20.12.25	Córdoba B - Castilleja	0:2 ✺
14.12.25	Castilleja - Chiclana	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.8 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
14.09.25	Castilleja - San Roque de Lepe	0:0
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
21.01.18	Castilleja - San Roque de Lepe	1:1

San Roque de Lepe - Castilleja: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide