Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 10 - Round 18

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday


	Castilleja		Tomares

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.78	3.35
	2.27	2.84	3.4
	2.25	2.8	3.2
	2.24	2.79	3.38
	2.22	2.8	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.76)	2.8 ↑ (2.77)	3.35 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castilleja
40.5%

Draw
32.4%

Tomares
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

32.6%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

33.2%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castilleja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Castilleja's performance.

Tomares has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tomares might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castilleja than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Castilleja that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tomares than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tomares could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Castilleja - Tomares Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Cazorla A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 15).

Castilleja is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tomares's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Castilleja may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Castilleja won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Tomares UD	5	2	2	1	6:5	1	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castilleja CF
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
11.01.26	Coria CF - Castilleja	1:1 ✺
03.01.26	Castilleja - Ceuta B	3:1 ✺
20.12.25	Córdoba B - Castilleja	0:2 ✺
14.12.25	Castilleja - Chiclana	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Conil - Castilleja	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.7 TWWTT
- UD Tomares
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
11.01.26	Cadiz CF B - Tomares	0:1 ✺
07.01.26	Ceuta B - Tomares	2:1 ✺
04.01.26	Tomares - Coria CF	5:0 ✺
20.12.25	Tomares - Ciudad de Lucena	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Tomares - Bollullos	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 10
07.09.25	Tomares - Castilleja	0:0

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