Match Info

Serie D - Play Offs - Final

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio José do Rego Maciel (Recife)


	Santa Cruz Recife		Barra Santa Catarina

	1	X	2
	1.95	2.88	3.95
	2	2.9	4.12
	1.94	2.9	4.19
	1.8	3.3	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.77)	3 ↓ (3.28)	4.14 ↓ (4.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Cruz Recife
47.5%

Draw
30.5%

Barra Santa Catarina
22%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

27.8%

20.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

26.5%

19.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Cruz Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Barra Santa Catarina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santa Cruz Recife, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barra Santa Catarina than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Santa Cruz Recife - Barra Santa Catarina Predictions

Users Predictions: Santa Cruz Recife will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Santa Cruz Recife will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
33', 1 - 0, ⚽,
40', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
63', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

Santa Cruz is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Barra has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Barra may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Santa Cruz is the team to beat.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Serie D
20.09.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Maranhão	0:0 ✺
14.09.25	Maranhão - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1 ✺
07.09.25	América RN - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Santa Cruz Recife - América RN	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Altos - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 TWTWW
- Barra Santa Catarina
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
21.09.25	Figueirense - Barra Santa Catarina	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
20.09.25	Internacional de Limeira - Barra Santa Catarina	2:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
14.09.25	Avaí - Barra Santa Catarina	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie D
13.09.25	Barra Santa Catarina - Internacional de Limeira	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
10.09.25	Barra Santa Catarina - Náutico Marcílio Dias	0:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 LWLWL

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