Match Info

Serie D - Round 6

Date: 25 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Antonio Mariz (Sousa)


	Sousa		Santa Cruz Recife

	1	X	2
	2.9	2.85	2.35
	2.95	3	2.36
	2.83	2.88	2.36
	2.93	3.03	2.4
	2.92	2.97	2.38
	2.95	3	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (2.07)	2.96 ↓ (3.15)	2.37 ↓ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sousa
31.1%

Draw
30.7%

Santa Cruz Recife
38.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.6%

28.6%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

29.4%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sousa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sousa's form might have worsened.

Santa Cruz Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Santa Cruz Recife's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sousa than the current prediction. (+13.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sousa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Santa Cruz Recife, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Sousa - Santa Cruz Recife Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Santa Cruz Recife will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+3', 0 - 1, Geovany Soares ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
90+6', 🟥,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

Recent form of Sousa has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Santa Cruz is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Santa Cruz may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sousa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Sousa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sousa
Brazilian Serie D
18.05.25	Horizonte - Sousa	2:1 ✺
11.05.25	Sousa - Ferroviário Fortaleza	4:0 ✺
04.05.25	Treze - Sousa	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	Sousa - Central SC	0:0 ✺
19.04.25	Santa Cruz de Natal - Sousa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLTL
- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Serie D
18.05.25	Central SC - Santa Cruz Recife	1:2 ✺
09.05.25	Santa Cruz Recife - América RN	2:1 ✺
03.05.25	Santa Cruz de Natal - Santa Cruz Recife	0:0 ✺
27.04.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Horizonte	4:0 ✺
20.04.25	Treze - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
28.06.23	Sousa - Santa Cruz Recife	2:1
03.06.23	Santa Cruz Recife - Sousa	1:0

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