Match Info

BRAZIL: Pernambucano - Round 5

Date: 28 January 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estádio José do Rego Maciel (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT


	Santa Cruz Recife		Retrô Brasil

	1	X	2
	2.1	3	3.1
	2.13	2.75	3.1
	2.12	3.08	3.46
	2.16	3.08	3.34
	2.1	3.2	3.1
	2.12	3	3.41
	2.13	2.75	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.19)	2.98 ↓ (3)	3.23 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Cruz Recife
42.2%

Draw
30.1%

Retrô Brasil
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

29.8%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

28.7%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Cruz Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Retrô Brasil has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Retrô Brasil than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Santa Cruz Recife - Retrô Brasil Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rokenedy (G) 9. Douglas Skilo 7. Joao Pedro 5. Lucas Siqueira 10. Matheus Melo 13. Matheus Vinicius 6. Rodrigues 17. Thiaguinho 2. Toty 8. Wagner Balotelli 4. William Alves (C)	12. Fabian Volpi (G) 17. Diego Guerra 10. Fernandinho (C) 2. Gedeilson 20. Gledson 6. Gustavo Salomao 27. Jonas 9. Mascote 8. Radsley 4. Rayan Ribeiro 15. Walce
Substitutes
28. da Hora V. 21. Everton Felipe 19. Gilvan 18. Henrique Lordelo 15. Israel 11. Jhonatan Ribeiro 3. Michel Bennech 23. Pedro Maia 14. Ruan Robert 12. Thiago Henrique (G) 16. Vinicius Silva 20. Vini Moura 22. Ze Artur	24. da Silva Santos D. L. (G) 14. Denilson 25. Ericson 7. Fabinho 11. Felipe Augusto 18. Franco R. 28. Lucas Grafite 5. Romulo 22. Samuel Granada 16. Savio

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Jonas 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
58', Fabian Volpi 🟨,
60', Rayan Ribeiro 🟨,
63', Mascote ↓, Felipe Augusto ↑,
63', Diego Guerra ↓, Fabinho ↑,
70', Lucas Siqueira ↓, Israel ↑,
70', Douglas Skilo ↓, Gilvan ↑,
73', Matheus Melo 🟨,
75', Gledson ↓, Franco R. ↑,
80', Matheus Melo ↓, Vini Moura ↑,
81', Rodrigues ↓, Vinicius Silva ↑,
84', 1 - 0, Israel ⚽,
87', Jonas ↓, Lucas Grafite ↑,
88', Wagner Balotelli 🟨,
90+4', Thiaguinho ↓, Henrique Lordelo ↑,
90+4', Rokenedy 🟨,
90+7', 🟨,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
25.01.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Santa Cruz Recife	2:1 ✺
19.01.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Afogados da Ingazeira	2:0 ✺
16.01.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Petrolina	2:0 ✺
11.01.25	Decisão - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
04.01.25	Santa Cruz Recife - Treze	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LWWTL
- Retrô Brasil
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
25.01.25	Retrô Brasil - Jaguar	1:1 ✺
18.01.25	Sport Recife - Retrô Brasil	1:1 ✺
15.01.25	Retrô Brasil - Afogados da Ingazeira	1:0 ✺
12.01.25	Retrô Brasil - Maguary	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
04.01.25	Retrô Brasil - Moto Club de São Luís	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 TTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
15.02.24	Santa Cruz Recife - Retrô Brasil	0:0
25.02.23	Retrô Brasil - Santa Cruz Recife	1:1
Brazilian Serie D
01.08.22	Retrô Brasil - Santa Cruz Recife	1:2
24.07.22	Santa Cruz Recife - Retrô Brasil	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
26.02.22	Santa Cruz Recife - Retrô Brasil	0:4
28.04.21	Retrô Brasil - Santa Cruz Recife	2:3
21.01.20	Retrô Brasil - Santa Cruz Recife	1:2

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