Match Info

Pernambucano - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT


	Náutico Capibaribe		Santa Cruz Recife

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.5	5.7
	1.54	3.42	6.65
	1.44	4	5.5
	1.57	3.97	5.22
	1.71	3.6	4.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.92)	3.7 ↑ (3.1)	5.52 ↑ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
58.5%

Draw
24.8%

Santa Cruz Recife
16.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

29.6%

22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

28.6%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Náutico Capibaribe's performance.

Santa Cruz Recife has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Santa Cruz Recife might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Náutico Capibaribe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Cruz Recife than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Santa Cruz Recife could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Náutico Capibaribe - Santa Cruz Recife Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Náutico (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Náutico Capibaribe will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
55. Guruceaga G. (G) 2. Arnaldo 10. Dodo 23. Igor Fernandes 29. Junior Todinho 9. Paulo Sergio 41. Samuel 7. Vinicius (C) 43. Wanderson 8. Wenderson 6. Yuri	25. Gabriel Souza (G) 26. Alex Ruan 3. Eurico (C) 4. Ianson 14. Israel 20. Patrick Allan 15. Pedro Favela 9. Quirino 18. Vitinho 8. Wagner Balotelli 10. Willian Junior
Substitutes
5. Auremir 21. Felipe Redaelli 13. Indio 11. Juninho 20. Kevyn Santos 66. Leo Jance 27. Luiz Felipe 1. Muriel Becker (G) 40. Ramon 93. Reginaldo 31. Rosa G. 34. Samuel Otusanya	5. Andrey 17. Gabriel Galhardo 16. Matheus Castilho 13. Matheus Vinicius 2. Pedro Costa 19. Renato 6. Rodrigues 12. Rokenedy (G) 21. Ryan 11. Vini Hora 22. William Alves
Coaches
Helio dos Anjos	Cortez F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Ianson 🟨,
17', Samuel 🟨,
23', Pedro Favela 🟨,
31', Arnaldo 🟨,
43', Ianson ↓, Matheus Vinicius ↑,
45+7', 1 - 0, Paulo Sergio (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Vitinho ↓, Renato ↑,
50', Wagner Balotelli 🟨,
58', Junior Todinho ↓, Juninho ↑,
58', Arnaldo ↓, Reginaldo ↑,
65', 🟨,
72', Quirino ↓, Matheus Castilho ↑,
73', 2 - 0, Paulo Sergio ⚽,
77', Samuel ↓, Auremir ↑,
77', Wenderson ↓, Luiz Felipe ↑,
79', Alex Ruan ↓, Rodrigues ↑,
80', Pedro Favela ↓, Gabriel Galhardo ↑,
80', Willian Junior ↓, Vini Hora ↑,
81', Eurico 🟨,
83', Dodo ↓, Ramon ↑,
84', Paulo Sergio ↓, Rosa G. ↑,
84', Luiz Felipe 🟨,

Preview

First leg result: 1-0. Second leg.

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Pernambucano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 4.

Náutico is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Santa Cruz has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Santa Cruz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Náutico has had a series of away games.

In this match, Náutico is considered a favorite.

We predict that Náutico will win today's game, with odds of 1.72.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 29:20. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Náutico won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:7. (average 1.6:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
11.02.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Vitória das Tabocas - Náutico Capibaribe	2:3 ✺
28.01.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Retrô Brasil	0:1 ✺
25.01.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	0:4 ✺
22.01.26	Jaguar - Náutico Capibaribe	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWLWW
- Santa Cruz Recife
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
11.02.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Decisão	1:0 ✺
05.02.26	Decisão - Santa Cruz Recife	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Sport Recife - Santa Cruz Recife	2:1 ✺
28.01.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Jaguar	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
11.02.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1
25.01.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	0:4
25.01.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Santa Cruz Recife	2:1
27.01.24	Santa Cruz Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	1:2
15.01.23	Santa Cruz Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	3:3
02.04.22	Náutico Capibaribe - Santa Cruz Recife	1:0 penalties
16.03.22	Santa Cruz Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1

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