Match Info

Challenge League - Round 10

Date: 20 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)


	Santa Lucia		Balzan

	1	X	2
	7.1	5.3	1.28	Watch
	7.36	5.11	1.31	Watch
	7.5	4.33	1.33
	7.17	4.44	1.4
	8.5	4.5	1.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.53 ↑ (5.01)	4.74 ↓ (4.95)	1.32 ↓ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santa Lucia
12%

Draw
19.1%

Balzan
68.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.1%

18.3%

63.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.9%

18.1%

64.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santa Lucia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Santa Lucia's form might have worsened.

Balzan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Balzan's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Lucia than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santa Lucia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Balzan than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Santa Lucia - Balzan Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
65', 0 - 1, Pulis N. ⚽,
86', 1 - 1, Vella M. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 in the zone Challenge League (Relegation Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Challenge League (Promotion Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santa Lucia won 2.

In recent matches, Santa Lucia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Balzan is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Balzan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Santa Lucia has had a series of away games.

In this match, Balzan is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Santa Lucia won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:15. (average 1.1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Santa Lucia won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:9. (average 0.8:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santa Lucia FC
Maltese Challenge League
13.12.25	Vittoriosa Stars - Santa Lucia	0:2 ✺
09.12.25	Żurrieq - Santa Lucia	4:0 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
06.12.25	Sirens - Santa Lucia	1:2 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
29.11.25	Santa Lucia - Swieqi United	1:3 ✺
23.11.25	Mġarr United - Santa Lucia	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WLWLT
- Balzan FC
Maltese Challenge League
14.12.25	Balzan - Żebbuġ Rangers	4:0 ✺
10.12.25	Fgura United - Balzan	1:2 ✺
30.11.25	Balzan - Mtarfa	4:0 ✺
22.11.25	Żurrieq - Balzan	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Balzan - Swieqi United	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
10.02.24	Balzan - Santa Lucia	0:1
26.09.23	Santa Lucia - Balzan	0:1
07.01.23	Balzan - Santa Lucia	3:1
28.08.22	Santa Lucia - Balzan	0:2
04.04.22	Balzan - Santa Lucia	0:3
11.03.22	Balzan - Santa Lucia	0:1
05.12.21	Santa Lucia - Balzan	3:3

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