Match Info

BRAZIL: PAULISTA - ROUND 10

Date: 25 February 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Do MorumBIS (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Rodrigues de Souza F. (Bra)


	Santos		São Bernardo

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.75	6	Watch
	1.57	3.9	5.75
	1.55	4	6	Watch
	1.52	3.85	5.7
	1.58	3.95	6.08
	1.44	3.6	6.5
	1.55	3.82	5.83	Watch
	1.53	3.7	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↑ (1.43)	3.82 ↓ (3.86)	5.93 ↓ (6.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
60.2%

Draw
24.2%

São Bernardo
15.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.4%

23.5%

13.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.4%

22.4%

12.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Santos - São Bernardo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Joao Paulo (G) 4. Aderlan 2. Gil 5. Joao Schmidt 3. Felipe Jonatan 8. Diego Pituca (C) 6. Joaquim 7. Pedrinho 10. Romulo Otero 11. Guilherme 9. Morelos A.	1. Alex Alves (G) 3. Helder Maciel 91. Alan Santos 4. Rafael Forster 14. Luiz Filipe 31. Lucas Lima 8. Rodrigo Souza (C) 6. Arthur Henrique 99. Kayke 11. Matheus Regis 21. Hugo Sanchez
Substitutes
14. Diego Borges 12. Diogenes (G) 22. Furch J. 20. Joao Vitor (G) 19. Marcelinho 13. Messias 16. Nonato 18. Rincon T. 15. Samuel 21. Silvano B. (G) 23. Weslley Patati 17. Willian	27. Anareto K. (G) 26. Davi Gabriel 2. Jeferson 43. Joao Ramos 12. Junior Oliveira (G) 33. Kaua Jesus 7. Lucas Tocantins 77. Matheus Martins 17. Romisson 10. Vitinho Mesquita 66. Vitor Ricardo 23. Wesley Dias
Coaches
Fabio Carille	Marcio Zanardi

Preview

Santos is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Santos won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Santos could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Santos is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Santos won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Santos won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
18.02.24	Santos - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:2 ✺
14.02.24	São Paulo - Santos	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
13.02.24	Zenit - Santos	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
11.02.24	Mirassol - Santos	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
09.02.24	Santos - Al Duhail	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWLTT
- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
19.02.24	São Bernardo - Santo André	1:0 ✺
15.02.24	São Bernardo - Palmeiras	0:1 ✺
10.02.24	Red Bull Bragantino - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
07.02.24	São Bernardo - Portuguesa	1:0 ✺
04.02.24	Ponte Preta - São Bernardo	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
22.01.23	São Bernardo - Santos	1:1
10.02.22	Santos - São Bernardo	1:1
12.03.17	São Bernardo - Santos	1:4
30.01.16	Santos - São Bernardo	1:1
14.02.15	São Bernardo - Santos	0:1
19.01.13	São Bernardo - Santos	1:3

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