Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 5

Date: 10 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia (Mirassol)

Referee: Claus R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Israel	Sport 2
Mexico	Azteca Deportes
Portugal	Canal 11
Spain	Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
United-kingdom	Premier Sports Player


	Mirassol		Santos

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.4	4.1	Watch
	2	3.5	3.6
	1.78	3.55	4.25
	1.85	3.72	4.71
	1.95	3.21	4.17	Watch
	1.75	3.4	4.33
	1.84	3.68	4.42	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (1.96)	3.49 ↑ (3.45)	4.23 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mirassol
51%

Draw
26.8%

Santos
22.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

47.6%

27%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.2%

26.8%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirassol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirassol than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	14.3%	42.9%

Mirassol - Santos Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Mirassol will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Santos will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mirassol: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Santos (2.02) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mirassol will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Mirassol (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Santos (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Walter (G) 32. Igor Formiga 34. Joao Victor 3. Willian Machado 6. Reinaldo (C) 25. Neto Moura 21. Jose Aldo 11. Negueba 7. Shaylon 77. Alesson 9. Nathan Fogaca	77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 18. Igor Vinicius 98. Frias A. 14. Luan Peres 3. Vinicius Lira 15. Willian Arao 5. Joao Schmidt 16. Thaciano 49. Gabriel Bontempo 11. Rony 9. Gabriel Barbosa (C)
Substitutes
23. Alex Muralha (G) 99. Andre Luis 96. Carlos Eduardo 20. Daniel Borges 8. Denilson 95. Edson Carioca 17. Everton Galdino 18. Gabriel Pires 27. Galeano A. 2. Lucas Oliveira 97. Rodrigues 12. Victor Luis	22. Barreal A. 19. Diaz L. 1. Diogenes (G) 31. Escobar G. 25. Gabriel Menino 48. Gustavo Henrique 12. Mayke 30. Miguelito 21. Moises 28. Oliva C. 32. Rollheiser B. 2. Ze Ivaldo
Coaches
Rafael Guanaes	Vojvoda J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Igor Formiga ⚽, Alesson (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
55', Joao Schmidt 🟨,
65', Willian Machado 🟨,
65', Joao Schmidt ↓, Gabriel Menino ↑,
65', Willian Arao ↓, Oliva C. ↑,
65', Vinicius Lira ↓, Barreal A. ↑,
69', Nathan Fogaca ↓, Andre Luis ↑,
69', Alesson ↓, Edson Carioca ↑,
71', 2 - 0, Negueba ⚽, Shaylon (A),
74', Gabriel Bontempo ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
74', Luan Peres ↓, Ze Ivaldo ↑,
79', Negueba ↓, Galeano A. ↑,
80', Shaylon ↓, Gabriel Pires ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Gabriel Barbosa ⚽,
88', 2 - 2, Gabriel Barbosa (Penalty Awarded),
90+1', Gabriel Barbosa 🟨,
90+2', Neto Moura ↓, Everton Galdino ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 1.

Mirassol is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Santos has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mirassol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Mirassol is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Mirassol: Andre Luis (Inactive) Daniel Borges (Inactive) Edson Carioca (Muscle Injury) Eduardo (Injury) Igor Formiga (Inactive) Renato Marques (Inactive)

There are questionable in Mirassol: Reinaldo (Injury)

There are questionable in Santos: Thaciano (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Mirassol won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 15:18. (average 1.4:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Mirassol won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:4. (average 2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Santos	31	12	9	10	48:46	2	45
14	Mirassol	31	9	9	13	36:44	-8	36

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mirassol
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.26	Mirassol - Portuguesa	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.02.26	Mirassol - Cruzeiro	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	Capivariano - Mirassol	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Remo - Mirassol	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
02.02.26	Mirassol - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LTLTT
- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
26.02.26	Santos - Vasco da Gama	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
22.02.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos	2:1 ✺
15.02.26	Santos - Velo Clube	7:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Athletico Paranaense - Santos	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
08.02.26	EC Noroeste - Santos	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
19.11.25	Santos - Mirassol	1:1
19.07.25	Mirassol - Santos	3:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
16.01.25	Santos - Mirassol	2:1
Brazilian Serie B
12.10.24	Santos - Mirassol	3:2
25.06.24	Mirassol - Santos	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
11.02.24	Mirassol - Santos	2:2
14.01.23	Santos - Mirassol	2:1

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