Match Info

Serie A - Round 33

Date: 28 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Vila Belmiro (Sao Paulo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Rodrigues F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Sporty TV, Sporty TV App, StarTimes App
Bosnia And Herzegovina	23:30	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	19:30	Globoplay, Premiere
Ecuador	17:30	Canal del Futbol
Germany	23:30	Sportdigital1+, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Israel	00:30	Sport 4
Kosovo	23:30	Arena Premium 3
North Macedonia	23:30	Arena Premium 3
Portugal	22:30	Canal 11
Russia	01:30	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	23:30	Arena Premium 3
Spain	23:30	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
Switzerland	23:30	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
United Kingdom	22:30	Premier Sports 2
Usa	18:30	Fanatiz
International	22:30	OneFootball TV


	Santos		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.4	1.96	Watch
	3.30	3.50	2.10
	3.55	3.45	1.98	Watch
	3.74	3.74	2.04
	3.44	3.77	2.03	Watch
	3.65	3.7	2.01
	4.1	3.45	1.97	Watch
	3.7	3.6	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.66 ↑ (2.93)	3.58 ↑ (3.32)	2.01 ↓ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santos
26%

Draw
26.6%

Palmeiras
47.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.7%

28.1%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.3%

27.8%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Santos's form might have worsened.

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palmeiras's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Palmeiras, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Santos - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 9 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palmeiras: 100% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (1.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Diogenes (G) 23. Rodinei 42. Joao Alencar 14. Luan Peres 22. Barreal A. 48. Gustavo Henrique 28. Oliva C. 8. Gabriel Bontempo 11. Coutinho 7. Everton 9. Gabriel Barbosa (C)	1. Carlos Miguel (G) 26. Murilo 15. Gomez G. (C) 2. Barboza A. 4. Giay A. 17. Marlon Freitas 30. Lucas Evangelista 22. Piquerez J. 11. Arias J. 8. Andreas Pereira 42. Lopez J.
Substitutes
17. Caballero G. 25. Gabriel Menino 18. Igor Vinicius 26. Joao Ananias 34. Joao Paulo (G) 5. Joao Schmidt 45. Lima 30. Miguelito 39. Pedro Assis 38. Rafael Gonzaga 32. Rollheiser B. 33. Rony	56. Arthur Gabriel 43. Benedetti 3. Bruno Fuchs 45. Erick Bele 7. Felipe Anderson 12. Khellven 48. Larson 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 18. Mauricio 9. Vitor Roque
Coaches
Cuca	Abel Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Coutinho 🟨,
38', Marlon Freitas 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Piquerez J. 🟨,
66', Andreas Pereira ↓, Mauricio ↑,
66', Marlon Freitas ↓, Larson ↑,
66', Piquerez J. ↓, Arthur Gabriel ↑,
67', Barboza A. 🟨,
70', Coutinho ↓, Rollheiser B. ↑,
75', Arias J. ↓, Vitor Roque ↑,
77', Gustavo Henrique ↓, Joao Schmidt ↑,
78', Gabriel Bontempo 🟨,
79', Lopez J. ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
84', Giay A. 🟨,
85', Everton ↓, Rony ↑,
85', Rodinei ↓, Igor Vinicius ↑,
85', Oliva C. ↓, Lima ↑,
87', Joao Schmidt 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table host welcomes one of the top contenders in an exciting contest (ranked 8th in the Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: ) and 2nd in the Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Santos won 1.

Santos has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Palmeiras shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Santos could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Palmeiras holding a narrow advantage.

Confirmed absences for Santos: Arthur Melo (Muscle Injury) Escobar G. (Inactive) Gabriel Brazao (Shoulder Injury) Lucas Verissimo (Injury) Neymar (Yellow Cards) Neymar (Red Card) Vinicius Lira (Knee Injury) Willian Arao (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Palmeiras: Jefte (Knee Injury) Paulinho (Inactive) Vitor Roque (Inactive).

Doubtful / questionable for Palmeiras: Sosa R. (Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Santos has recorded 3 wins, 3 draws, and 14 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:29 (averaging 0.6:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Santos against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 3:5 goals (averaging 0.4:0.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Palmeiras	33	20	10	3	56:22	34	70
8	Santos	33	12	11	10	49:47	2	47

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
24.10.26	Santos - Bahia	1:1 ✺
18.10.26	Fluminense - Santos	1:2 ✺
11.10.26	Atlético Mineiro - Santos	2:1 ✺
08.10.26	Santos - Flamengo	2:2 ✺
02.10.26	São Paulo - Santos	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.4 TWLTW
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
24.10.26	Palmeiras - Red Bull Bragantino	2:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
21.10.26	Palmeiras - Fluminense	1:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.10.26	Athletico Paranaense - Palmeiras	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.10.26	Fluminense - Palmeiras	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.10.26	Palmeiras - Corinthians	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa do Brasil
02.09.26	Santos - Palmeiras	0:0
26.08.26	Palmeiras - Santos	3:0
Brazilian Serie A
02.05.26	Palmeiras - Santos	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
14.01.26	Palmeiras - Santos	1:0
Brazilian Serie A
15.11.25	Santos - Palmeiras	1:0
06.11.25	Palmeiras - Santos	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
22.01.25	Santos - Palmeiras	1:2

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