Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 1 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Primeiro de Maio (Sao Bernardo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, UOL Play, Zapping
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Israel	Sport 2
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Usa	Fanatiz


	São Bernardo		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	7	4.33	1.44	Watch
	6.6	4.1	1.42	Watch
	8.59	4.59	1.4
	7.99	4.25	1.42	Watch
	7.5	4	1.4
	7.42	4.41	1.46	Watch
	6.6	4.1	1.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.39 ↑ (5.25)	4.25 ↑ (3.5)	1.42 ↓ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

São Bernardo
12.6%

Draw
21.9%

Palmeiras
65.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.3%

25.9%

56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.2%

25.7%

57.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Palmeiras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palmeiras's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Palmeiras, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

São Bernardo - Palmeiras Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alex Alves (G) 3. Helder Maciel (C) 13. Matheus Salustiano 97. Augusto 17. Romisson 20. Emerson Santos 31. Lucas Lima 95. Para 21. Hugo Sanches 8. Leo Jaba 77. Guilherme Queiroz	21. Weverton (G) 2. Marcos Rocha (C) 26. Murilo 13. Micael 6. Vanderlan 27. Rios R. 32. Martinez E. 41. Estevao 23. Raphael Veiga 17. Torres F. 42. Flaco Lopez
Substitutes
6. Arthur Henrique 11. Daniel Fabricio 87. Felipe Azevedo 35. Foguinho 5. Kadi Silva 30. Lucas Rian 7. Lucas Tocantins 25. Pedro Carrerette 4. Rafael Forster 9. Rodolfo 84. Vanderlei (G) 10. Vitinho	40. Allan 43. Benedetti 3. Bruno Fuchs 35. Fabinho 9. Felipe Anderson 4. Giay A. 31. Luighi 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 12. Mayke 5. Moreno A. 34. Naves 39. Thalys
Coaches
Ricardo Catala	Ferreira A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Estevao ⚽, Flaco Lopez (A),
31', Marcos Rocha 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 2, Estevao ⚽, Flaco Lopez (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Guilherme Queiroz ↓, Daniel Fabricio ↑,
58', 0 - 3, Flaco Lopez ⚽,
59', Augusto ↓, Foguinho ↑,
59', Emerson Santos ↓, Lucas Rian ↑,
61', Micael ↓, Bruno Fuchs ↑,
72', Leo Jaba ↓, Lucas Tocantins ↑,
73', Matheus Salustiano 🟨,
74', Martinez E. ↓, Moreno A. ↑,
75', Flaco Lopez ↓, Thalys ↑,
83', Torres F. ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
83', Estevao ↓, Mayke ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches São Bernardo won 0.

Recent matches São Bernardo is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Palmeiras is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Palmeiras is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches São Bernardo won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 1:13 (average 0.1:1.6).

Including matches at home between the teams São Bernardo won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:3 (average 0.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
23.02.25	São Bernardo - São Paulo	1:3 ✺
20.02.25	Portuguesa - São Bernardo	1:1 ✺
16.02.25	São Bernardo - Guarani	1:0 ✺
12.02.25	EC Noroeste - São Bernardo	2:3 ✺
09.02.25	Corinthians - São Bernardo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTWWL
- Palmeiras
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
23.02.25	Mirassol - Palmeiras	2:3 ✺
20.02.25	Palmeiras - Botafogo SP	3:1 ✺
16.02.25	Palmeiras - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
13.02.25	Internacional de Limeira - Palmeiras	0:3 ✺
09.02.25	Água Santa - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.24	São Bernardo - Palmeiras	0:1
11.03.23	Palmeiras - São Bernardo	1:0
29.01.22	São Bernardo - Palmeiras	1:1
16.02.17	Palmeiras - São Bernardo	2:0
18.04.16	Palmeiras - São Bernardo	2:0
22.03.15	São Bernardo - Palmeiras	0:1
27.02.14	Palmeiras - São Bernardo	2:0

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