Match Info

EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 18 July 2024, Thursday

Location: Stadion Asim Ferhatović Hase (Sarajevo)

Referee: Kucuk Z. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Kazakhstan	Qazsport


	Sarajevo		Aktobe

	1	X	2
	3	3.25	2.25	Watch
	2.7	3.2	2.4
	3	3.2	2.3
	3.15	3.3	2.44
	3.12	3.22	2.3	Watch
	2.5	3.3	2.5
	3.03	3.22	2.36	Watch
	3	3.3	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↑ (2.35)	3.25 ↓ (3.35)	2.36 ↓ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarajevo
31.8%

Draw
28.7%

Aktobe
39.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

27.5%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

27%

32.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarajevo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sarajevo's form might have worsened.

Aktobe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Aktobe's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarajevo than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sarajevo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aktobe than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aktobe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	6.7%	33.3%

Sarajevo - Aktobe Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Sarajevo will win (votes: 9 - 60%). Aktobe will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sarajevo: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
42. Rockov E. (G) 33. Celik N. 44. Djurickovic M. (C) 24. Soldo V. 16. Jovic F. 22. Beganovic A. 29. Bubanja V. 14. Djordjevic A. 17. Guliashvili G. 7. Catakovic H. 11. Kyeremeh F.	30. Shatskiy I. (G) 31. Tanzharikov A. 15. Kiki G. 44. Barac M. 12. Doumbouya A. 16. Cevallos J. 5. Strumia L. (C) 11. Umaev I. 88. Vatajelu B. 17. Romero D. 10. Samorodov M.
Substitutes
26. Alajmovic E. 32. Andjusic N. 3. Durakovic E. 27. Hamzic M. 18. Julardzija E. 5. Matanovic M. 8. Mehmedovic E. 4. Mujkic N. 9. Renan Oliveira 19. Ristic A. 39. Rogic L. (G) 28. Unusic B.	3. Bessmertnyi D. 54. Gabdrakhmanov R. 18. Jairo J. 6. Kasym A. 80. Kenesov A. 48. Kenzhegulov A. 1. Trofimets I. (G) 57. Umaniyazov M.
Coaches
Zekic Z.	Parfenov D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', Cevallos J. 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Umaev I. ⚽, Doumbouya A. (A),
44', Umaev I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
52', Djordjevic A. 🟨,
57', 1 - 1, Guliashvili G. ⚽,
58', Djordjevic A. ↓, Andjusic N. ↑,
58', Bubanja V. ↓, Mehmedovic E. ↑,
62', Cevallos J. ↓, Kenesov A. ↑,
66', Doumbouya A. ↓, Bessmertnyi D. ↑,
66', Umaev I. ↓, Jairo J. ↑,
71', Catakovic H. ↓, Renan Oliveira ↑,
73', Rockov E. 🟨,
75', 1 - 2, Tanzharikov A. ⚽,
79', Djurickovic M. 🟨,
87', Jovic F. ↓, Durakovic E. ↑,
89', Barac M. ↓, Kasym A. ↑,
Extra Time (1 - 1)
93', 1 - 3, Jairo J. ⚽,
96', 2 - 3, Renan Oliveira ⚽,
105+1', Djurickovic M. 🟨,
110', Vatajelu B. ↓, Umaniyazov M. ↑,
120', Kyeremeh F. ↓, Unusic B. ↑,
120', Guliashvili G. ↓, Julardzija E. ↑,
120+2', Umaniyazov M. 🟨,
120+3', Soldo V. 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 3)
1, Romero D. (Pen),
1, Andjusic N. (Pen),
2, Tanzharikov A. (Pen),
2, Mehmedovic E. (Pen),
3, Jairo J. (Pen),
3, Renan Oliveira (Pen),
4, Samorodov M. (Pen),
4, Julardzija E. (Pen),
5, Kasym A. (Pen),
5, Durakovic E. (Pen),

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-0.

Recent matches Sarajevo is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Aktobe is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Sarajevo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Sarajevo have a series of guest games.

Recently Aktobe have a series of home games.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Sarajevo won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Sarajevo
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.07.24	Aktobe - Sarajevo	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
03.07.24	Olimpija Ljubljana - Sarajevo	1:0 ✺
29.06.24	Shakhtar Donetsk - Sarajevo	4:1 ✺
28.06.24	UTA Arad - Sarajevo	1:3 ✺
Bosnian Premier League
26.05.24	Široki Brijeg - Sarajevo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WLLWT
- FC Aktobe
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.07.24	Aktobe - Sarajevo	0:1 ✺
Kazakh League Cup
06.07.24	Tobol Kostanay - Aktobe	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
05.07.24	Aktobe - Spartak Moscow	1:1 ✺
Kazakh Premier League
30.06.24	Aktobe - Tobol Kostanay	3:4 ✺
23.06.24	Aktobe - Shakhter Karagandy	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Europa Conference League
11.07.24	Aktobe - Sarajevo	0:1

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