Match Info

Torneo Federal - Winners stage - Round 9

Date: 14 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Resistencia)


	Sarmiento de La Banda		Atlético de Rafaela

	1	X	2
	2.05	2.85	3.5
	1.32	4.65	9.57	Watch
	2.08	3.21	3.63
	2	2.95	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (2.44)	3.42 ↑ (2.93)	5.08 ↑ (2.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarmiento de La Banda
52.3%

Draw
28.5%

Atlético de Rafaela
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

30.8%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.4%

32.1%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarmiento de La Banda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sarmiento de La Banda's performance.

Atlético de Rafaela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético de Rafaela might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarmiento de La Banda than the current prediction. (-13.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sarmiento de La Banda that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético de Rafaela than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético de Rafaela could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sarmiento de La Banda - Atlético de Rafaela Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mendonca J. (G) 5. Caviglia J. 9. Dominguez M. 7. Garzon I. 2. Herrera R. 11. Lezcano L. 3. Ochoa A. 8. Pinto A. 10. Roldan I. 4. Solveyra A. 6. Triverio G.	1. Bilbao E. (G) 10. Affranchino F. 9. Albertengo L. 8. Capurro J. 2. Fernandez G. 4. Fuyana J. 7. Leineker C. 11. Pastorelli A. 5. Soloa F. 3. Torres G. 6. Utrera N.
Substitutes
12. Acuna F. (G) 13. Araujo C. 20. Arias J. 14. Guzman G. 17. Perez F. 16. Speck N. 18. Vega C. 19. Veliz R. 15. Zaineddin L.	20. Alfano A. 12. Bergia M. (G) 14. Jaime D. 17. Marchiori T. 13. Martinez M. 18. Miranda B. 16. Ontivero L. 19. Protti I. 15. Varela N.
Coaches
Molins C.	Juarez I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Herrera R. ⚽,
12', 🟨,
25', Capurro J. 🟨,
25', 🟨,
43', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
58', 🟨,
84', Soloa F. 🟥,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Promotion ~ Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Play Offs: )).

Atlético Rafaela is Qualified for Torneo Federal (Play Offs )

Recent form of Sarmiento La Banda has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Atlético Rafaela is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sarmiento La Banda won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Including home match between the teams, Sarmiento La Banda won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético de Rafaela - the odds 2.79 are the expected chance of winning is 32.3%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarmiento de La Banda
Argentinian Torneo Federal
07.09.25	Sportivo Belgrano - Sarmiento de La Banda	4:1 ✺
31.08.25	Sarmiento de La Banda - General San Martín de Formosa	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Gimnasia y Esgrima Chivilcoy - Sarmiento de La Banda	3:0 ✺
10.08.25	Sarmiento de La Banda - 9 de Julio	0:0 ✺
01.08.25	Juventud Antoniana - Sarmiento de La Banda	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LWLTL
- Atlético de Rafaela
Argentinian Torneo Federal
07.09.25	Atlético de Rafaela - 9 de Julio	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Juventud Antoniana - Atlético de Rafaela	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Atlético de Rafaela - Independiente Chivilcoy	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Douglas Haig - Atlético de Rafaela	1:2 ✺
03.08.25	Atlético de Rafaela - Sportivo Belgrano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Torneo Federal
06.07.25	Sarmiento de La Banda - Atlético de Rafaela	1:0
03.05.25	Atlético de Rafaela - Sarmiento de La Banda	2:1

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