Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 33

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday


	Sarnese		Francavilla

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.35	3.75
	1.7	3.63	4.01
	1.83	3.47	3.86	Watch
	1.75	3.3	3.8
	1.79	3.73	4.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (1.9)	3.5 ↑ (3.1)	3.91 ↓ (4.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarnese
50.9%

Draw
25.9%

Francavilla
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.3%

29.6%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

29.1%

21.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarnese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Francavilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarnese than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francavilla than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Sarnese - Francavilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
5', 1 - 0, ⚽,
11', 1 - 1, ⚽,
24', 2 - 1, ⚽,
45', 2 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 12).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Francavilla may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Sarnese is the team to beat.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Sarnese won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:2. (average 2:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Sarnese won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Francavilla	6	1	0	5	3:7	-4	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarnese
Italian Serie D - Group H
19.04.26	Fidelis Andria - Sarnese	2:1 ✺
12.04.26	Sarnese - Nardo	0:0 ✺
02.04.26	Acerrana - Sarnese	2:5 ✺
28.03.26	Sarnese - Nola	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Heraclea - Sarnese	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LTWWT
- FC Francavilla
Italian Serie D - Group H
19.04.26	Virtus Francavilla - Francavilla	1:2 ✺
02.04.26	Fidelis Andria - Francavilla	0:0 ✺
29.03.26	Francavilla - Heraclea	2:2 ✺
22.03.26	Nardo - Francavilla	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Francavilla - Città di Fasano	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group H
14.12.25	Francavilla - Sarnese	0:4
03.03.19	Sarnese - Francavilla	1:0
11.11.18	Francavilla - Sarnese	0:0
17.12.17	Sarnese - Francavilla	3:2

Sarnese - Francavilla: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide