Match Info

Serie D - Group H - Round 31

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Sarnese		Nardo

	1	X	2
	2.22	3	3.05
	1.98	3.23	3.35
	2.13	3.14	3.29	Watch
	2.2	2.8	3.1
	2.16	3.3	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.17)	3.09 ↓ (3.1)	3.22 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarnese
42.5%

Draw
29.3%

Nardo
28.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.9%

29.4%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

28.3%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarnese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Nardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarnese than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nardo than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Sarnese - Nardo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group H (Play Offs: )).

Sarnese is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Nardo's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Nardo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sarnese won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	A.C.D. Nardo	9	1	3	5	7:17	-10	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarnese
Italian Serie D - Group H
02.04.26	Acerrana - Sarnese	2:5 ✺
28.03.26	Sarnese - Nola	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Heraclea - Sarnese	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Sarnese - Gravina	2:0 ✺
01.03.26	Città di Fasano - Sarnese	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWTWL
- ACD Nardo
Italian Serie D - Group H
02.04.26	Nardo - Pompei	2:3 ✺
29.03.26	Virtus Francavilla - Nardo	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Nardo - Francavilla	2:1 ✺
15.03.26	Acerrana - Nardo	0:0 ✺
01.03.26	Nardo - Fidelis Andria	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group H
30.11.25	Nardo - Sarnese	1:1

Sarnese - Nardo