The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Sergipe 61%
Draw 26.7%
América de Propriá 12.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
54.2%
27.3%
18.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
55.8%
26.5%
18%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sergipe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sergipe's performance.
América de Propriá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and América de Propriá might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sergipe than the current prediction. (-5.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sergipe that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for América de Propriá than the current prediction. (+5.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that América de Propriá could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Sergipe - América de Propriá Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Filipe Santos (G) 11. Andrey 3. Carioca 10. Juliano Fabro 7. Lucas Mineiro 5. Matheus Neris 8. Paulo Henrique 2. Rafael Luiz 4. Victor Massaia 6. Wilker V. 9. Ze Artur
1. Guiga (G) 8. Danielzinho 16. Dudu 10. Obina 15. Paulo Miranda 9. Piaui 5. Recife Felipe 2. Renato 21. Silva de Souza Junior A. C. 11. Wesley Ceifador 4. Yuri Mamute
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Lucas Mineiro ⚽,
39', Recife Felipe 🟨,
45+5', Carioca 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Paulo Henrique ↓, Joao Varolo ↑,
58', Matheus Neris 🟨,
59', Wilker V. 🟨,
61', Recife Felipe ↓, Soares Santos M. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Danielzinho ⚽,
72', Lucas Mineiro ↓, Cascais V. ↑,
72', Ze Artur ↓, Betinho ↑,
78', Wesley Ceifador ↓, Leo Cotia ↑,
78', Danielzinho ↓, Tiquinho ↑,
83', Obina ↓, Biro Biro ↑,
83', Dudu ↓, Lemos Y. ↑,
84', Juliano Fabro ↓, Felipe Valdivia ↑,
87', 🟨,
90+8', 🟨,
Penalties (6 - 5)
1, Leo Cotia (Penalty Awarded),
1, Victor Massaia (Penalty Awarded),
2, Lemos Y. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Wilker V. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Paulo Miranda (Penalty Awarded),
3, Cascais V. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Soares Santos M. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Betinho (Penalty Awarded),
5, Tiquinho (Penalty Awarded),
5, Andrey (Penalty Awarded),
6, Yuri Mamute (Penalty Awarded),
6, Rafael Luiz (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
First leg result: 1-1. Second leg.
Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Sergipano (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
Sergipe is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
América de Propriá has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
América de Propriá may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Sergipe is considered a favorite.
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sergipe won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).
Including home matches between the teams, Sergipe won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).
Watch
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Filipe Santos (G) 
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