Match Info

Capixaba - Round 6

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal Roberto Siqueira Costa (Serra)


	Serra		Rio Branco-VN

	1	X	2
	1.95	3	3.7
	1.74	3.3	4.35
	1.91	3.22	3.87	Watch
	1.7	3.2	4.8
	1.67	3.51	5.42
	1.73	3.33	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (2.14)	3.26 ↑ (3.09)	4.44 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Serra
51.3%

Draw
28.1%

Rio Branco-VN
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

29.6%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

28.5%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Serra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Serra's performance.

Rio Branco-VN has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rio Branco-VN might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Serra than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Serra that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Branco-VN than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rio Branco-VN could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Serra - Rio Branco VN Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Serra will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Rio Branco-VN will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Serra (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pedro Henrique (G) 6. Conrado 10. Dandan 21. Gean Miller 11. Marcudinho 9. Patrick (C) 7. Pepeu 4. Rossales 3. Ruan Lopes 5. Walney 15. Yuri	12. Brunao (G) 21. Bruno 13. Caldeira I. 4. Diego Augusto 15. Fogliato D. 9. Guilherme Teixeira 2. Jair Junior 25. Julio Cesar 26. Leozidio 17. Lucas J. 22. Weverton
Substitutes
22. Brizuela O. 20. Bruno Paixao 25. Chico 14. Edson Mika 12. Eduardo (G) 8. Fabio Magrao 19. Hygor 13. Jherlison 2. Marcus Diniz 18. Rickelmi 17. Wendel	7. Carlos Eduardo 3. Douglas Zielke 5. Jackson 8. Joao Torres 20. Juninho Silva 18. Leo Ferraz 28. Mineiro J. 10. Rafael Sayao 24. Rodolfo (G) 19. Victor Hugo 27. Vitinho 14. Wendell

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Weverton ↓, Joao Torres ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Conrado ↓, Edson Mika ↑,
55', Lucas J. 🟥,
65', Walney ↓, Chico ↑,
65', Marcudinho ↓, Bruno Paixao ↑,
65', Diego Augusto 🟨,
67', 1 - 0, Patrick ⚽,
68', Bruno ↓, Victor Hugo ↑,
68', Guilherme Teixeira ↓, Carlos Eduardo ↑,
76', Joao Torres ↓, Rafael Sayao ↑,
76', Caldeira I. ↓, Douglas Zielke ↑,
76', Dandan ↓, Fabio Magrao ↑,
84', Pepeu ↓, Hygor ↑,
87', Fabio Magrao 🟨,
90+4', Fabio Magrao 🟨,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 9 in the zone Relegation ~ Capixaba 2).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Rio Branco-VN may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Serra might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Serra won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 0.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Serra won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Serra FC
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
28.01.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Serra	2:0 ✺
25.01.26	Serra - Capixaba SC	3:0 ✺
22.01.26	Noroeste - Serra	1:1 ✺
16.01.26	Serra - Desportiva Ferroviaria	3:0 ✺
13.01.26	Rio Branco AC ES - Serra	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.1 LWTWT
- Rio Branco-VN
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
28.01.26	Porto Vitória - Rio Branco-VN	2:2 ✺
25.01.26	Rio Branco-VN - Forte Rio Bananal	0:0 ✺
22.01.26	Capixaba SC - Rio Branco-VN	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Rio Branco-VN - Noroeste	2:2 ✺
13.01.26	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Rio Branco-VN	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
02.05.25	Serra - Rio Branco-VN	0:1
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
16.02.24	Serra - Rio Branco-VN	0:1
13.03.22	Rio Branco-VN - Serra	1:2
28.02.21	Rio Branco-VN - Serra	2:0

Serra - Rio Branco-VN: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide