Match Info

Capixaba - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday

Location: Estádio José Olímpio da Rocha (Águia Branca)


	Noroeste		Serra

	1	X	2
	2.92	2.82	2.4
	2.88	2.87	2.37
	2.94	2.96	2.41	Watch
	2.9	2.8	2.4
	2.96	2.9	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↓ (2.94)	2.87 ↓ (2.96)	2.4 ↓ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Noroeste
30.9%

Draw
31.4%

Serra
37.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

30.9%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.3%

29.8%

36.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Noroeste has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Serra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Noroeste than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Serra than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Noroeste - Serra Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Giovani (G) 7. David Lima 2. Diego 10. Erlon 17. Guilherme Brito 5. Jaquison 6. Lucas Silva 9. Marcelinho 8. Matheus Recife 3. Murilo 22. Romulo	1. Pedro Henrique (G) 6. Conrado 10. Dandan 24. Knupp 11. Marcudinho 9. Patrick 7. Pepeu 4. Rossales 3. Ruan Lopes 5. Walney 15. Yuri

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2nd Half (1 - 0)

Preview

First leg.

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Noroeste won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Noroeste won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 20:13. (average 1.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Noroeste won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.7:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Noroeste
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
12.02.26	Capixaba SC - Noroeste	0:2 ✺
08.02.26	Noroeste - Porto Vitória	0:1 ✺
05.02.26	Noroeste - Desportiva Ferroviaria	3:2 ✺
01.02.26	Rio Branco AC ES - Noroeste	0:1 ✺
29.01.26	Noroeste - Vitória ES	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.4 WLWWL
- Serra FC
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
12.02.26	Serra - Vitória ES	1:2 ✺
09.02.26	Vilavelhense - Serra	1:0 ✺
03.02.26	Porto Vitória - Serra	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Serra - Rio Branco-VN	1:0 ✺
28.01.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Serra	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
22.01.26	Noroeste - Serra	1:1
Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
25.06.25	Noroeste - Serra	3:4
Brazilian Serie D
06.07.24	Serra - Noroeste	2:2
11.05.24	Noroeste - Serra	0:0
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
07.02.24	Noroeste - Serra	5:1
24.03.23	Noroeste - Serra	1:0
17.03.23	Serra - Noroeste	2:1

Noroeste - Serra: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide