Match Info

Capixaba - Round 9

Date: 12 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Estádio Municipal Roberto Siqueira Costa (Serra)


	Serra		Vitória ES

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.92	2.88
	2.46	2.83	2.91
	2.31	2.81	3.28	Watch
	2.3	2.9	2.9
	2.28	3.18	3.18
	2.45	2.85	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↓ (2.43)	2.92 ↓ (3.15)	3.01 ↑ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Serra
38.5%

Draw
31.2%

Vitória ES
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

28.8%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

30.8%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Serra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Vitória ES has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Serra than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória ES than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Serra - Vitória ES Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pedro Henrique (G) 10. Dandan 14. Edson Mika 21. Gean Miller 11. Marcudinho 9. Patrick 7. Pepeu 4. Rossales 3. Ruan Lopes 5. Walney 15. Yuri	12. Paulo Henrique (G) 22. Abuda 18. Canario 10. Carlos Vitor 2. Foguete 5. Gualberto 3. Guilherme Truyts 20. Gustavo Tonoli 15. Jonata 6. Thiago Magatao 11. Vini
Substitutes
22. Brizuela O. 20. Bruno Paixao 25. Chico 6. Conrado 12. Dudu 8. Fabio Magrao 24. Knupp . Leonardo 16. Marco Damasceno 2. Marcus Diniz 18. Rickelmi 17. Wendel	23. Caio Ferraz 25. Cezini . Enzo 9. Felipe Quieza 16. Geisandro 21. Junior Vernier (G) 24. Kaiky 1. Lucao (G) 27. Mailson 13. Marcelinho 14. Stuart

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Gustavo Tonoli ⚽,
14', 1 - 1, Dandan ⚽,
16', Paulo Henrique 🟨,
17', Dandan (Penalty Awarded),
24', Rossales 🟨,
36', Abuda 🟨,
38', Foguete 🟨,
38', Pepeu 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Pepeu ↓, Chico ↑,
46', Marcudinho ↓, Marco Damasceno ↑,
60', (Penalty Awarded),
61', Jonata 🟨,
74', Patrick ↓, Bruno Paixao ↑,
75', Jonata ↓, Cezini ↑,
79', 1 - 2, Gualberto ⚽,
79', Gean Miller ↓, Fabio Magrao ↑,
83', Bruno Paixao 🟨,
83', Ruan Lopes ↓, Marcus Diniz ↑,
85', Carlos Vitor ↓, Mailson ↑,
85', Abuda ↓, Caio Ferraz ↑,
86', Vini ↓, Geisandro ↑,
90+1', Gustavo Tonoli ↓, Kaiky ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Serra is Qualified for Capixaba (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Vitória ES is Qualified for Capixaba (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Serra won 0.

In recent matches, Serra has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Vitória ES is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Serra may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Serra won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:14. (average 0.8:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Serra won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Serra FC
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
09.02.26	Vilavelhense - Serra	1:0 ✺
03.02.26	Porto Vitória - Serra	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Serra - Rio Branco-VN	1:0 ✺
28.01.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Serra	2:0 ✺
25.01.26	Serra - Capixaba SC	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LWWLW
- Vitória ES
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
07.02.26	Vitória ES - Rio Branco-VN	3:0 ✺
04.02.26	Forte Rio Bananal - Vitória ES	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Vitória ES - Capixaba SC	2:0 ✺
29.01.26	Noroeste - Vitória ES	0:4 ✺
24.01.26	Vitória ES - Desportiva Ferroviaria	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
25.05.25	Vitória ES - Serra	4:0
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
23.01.24	Vitória ES - Serra	3:1
12.02.23	Vitória ES - Serra	2:2
05.03.22	Serra - Vitória ES	2:2
01.02.20	Serra - Vitória ES	0:2
28.02.19	Vitória ES - Serra	1:0

Serra - Vitória ES: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide