Match Info

Capixaba - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Mario Monteiro (Sumare) (Cachoeiro de Itapemirim)


	Vilavelhense		Serra

	1	X	2
	4.55	3.3	1.68
	5.07	3.39	1.63
	4.4	3.38	1.76	Watch
	5	3.2	1.67
	4.53	3.4	1.81
	3.9	3.35	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.58 ↑ (3.9)	3.34 ↓ (3.35)	1.71 ↓ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vilavelhense
19.8%

Draw
27.2%

Serra
53%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.6%

26.3%

51.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.3%

24.5%

47.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vilavelhense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Serra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vilavelhense than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Serra than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Serra, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Vilavelhense - Serra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
91. Joao Gomes (G) 5. Borjao 9. Diogo 8. Gabriel Amorim 4. Gabriel Dembele 11. Guilherme 6. Kainandro 10. Kelvin 7. Lucas Bonete 2. Makelele 3. Palacios Cantillo J. D.	1. Pedro Henrique (G) 25. Chico 6. Conrado 10. Dandan 8. Fabio Magrao 11. Marcudinho 9. Patrick (C) 4. Rossales 3. Ruan Lopes 5. Walney 15. Yuri
Substitutes
16. Alberto 18. Campos Almeida E. d. S. 21. Daniel Rodrigues 20. Davis 14. Fellipi Marques 22. Joao Firmino 15. Joao Rozario 13. Jomar 25. Juninho 92. Matheus Cabral (G) 17. Salah 19. Shaider	22. Brizuela O. 20. Bruno Paixao 14. Edson Mika 12. Eduardo (G) 21. Gean Miller 19. Hygor 13. Jherlison 24. Knupp 2. Marcus Diniz 7. Pepeu 18. Rickelmi 17. Wendel

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
33', Guilherme 🟨,
34', 0 - 1, Dandan ⚽,
42', 0 - 2, Marcudinho ⚽,
43', 🟨,
45+9', Pedro 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kelvin ↓, Alberto ↑,
46', Yuri ↓, Marcus Diniz ↑,
49', 1 - 2, Palacios Cantillo J. D. ⚽,
65', Chico ↓, Wendel ↑,
67', Guilherme ↓, Davis ↑,
73', Dandan ↓, Hygor ↑,
73', Walney ↓, Knupp ↑,
78', Kainandro ↓, Joao Rozario ↑,
78', Makelele ↓, Joao Firmino ↑,
87', Patrick ↓, Bruno Paixao ↑,
89', Lucas Bonete ↓, Shaider ↑,

Preview

First leg.

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Capixaba (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Vilavelhense won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Vilavelhense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Serra is the team to beat.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Vilavelhense won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:16. (average 1.9:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Vilavelhense won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 2:2.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vilavelhense FC
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
27.02.26	Vilavelhense - Desportiva Ferroviaria	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Desportiva Ferroviaria - Vilavelhense	1:1 ✺
12.02.26	Porto Vitória - Vilavelhense	1:0 ✺
09.02.26	Vilavelhense - Serra	1:0 ✺
03.02.26	Rio Branco-VN - Vilavelhense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.8 TTLWW
- Serra FC
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
26.02.26	Serra - Noroeste	1:0 ✺
20.02.26	Noroeste - Serra	2:1 ✺
12.02.26	Serra - Vitória ES	1:2 ✺
09.02.26	Vilavelhense - Serra	1:0 ✺
03.02.26	Porto Vitória - Serra	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
09.02.26	Vilavelhense - Serra	1:0
Brazilian Copa Espirito Santo
15.06.25	Vilavelhense - Serra	2:1
Brazilian Campeonato Capixaba
11.03.23	Vilavelhense - Serra	3:3
08.04.22	Serra - Vilavelhense	3:1
31.03.22	Vilavelhense - Serra	1:3
26.03.22	Vilavelhense - Serra	2:3
28.04.21	Vilavelhense - Serra	3:3

Vilavelhense - Serra: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide