Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 11

Date: 2 November 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Las Llanas (Sestao)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Sestao		Osasuna B

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.4	4
	1.78	3.25	3.9
	1.81	3.5	4.2
	1.84	3.27	4.6
	1.79	3.27	4.46	Watch
	1.82	3.32	4.32
	1.81	3.5	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↓ (2.3)	3.36 ↑ (3.06)	4.24 ↑ (3.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sestao
51%

Draw
27.3%

Osasuna B
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

30.1%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

27.1%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sestao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sestao's performance.

Osasuna B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Osasuna B might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sestao than the current prediction. (-15%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sestao that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osasuna B than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Osasuna B could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sestao - Osasuna B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Garrido J. (G) 22. Etxeberria M. 23. Efremov A. 16. Galvez R. 3. Cordero C. 7. Planas A. 6. Gomez A. 15. Bustillo M. 18. Cordoba A. 14. Garcia S. 10. Martinez Ortiz L.	13. Valencia P. (G) 2. Moreno D. 18. Espejo D. 4. Garriz I. 32. Santos U. 3. Herrero T. 21. Garcia J. 14. Huarte X. 8. Osambela A. 29. Pedroarena M. 7. Lumbreras C.
Substitutes
9. Aznar D. 12. Barandalla M. 5. Blanco C. 11. Etxaniz J. 21. Miranda A. 17. Palacin E. 26. Recalde P. N.	22. Arguibide I. 20. Arroyo R. 10. Auria M. 6. Echegoyen M. 11. Lorenzo N. 34. Morales A. 17. Moreno P. 5. Mutilva C. 9. Sancho D. 1. Stamatakis D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
22', Osambela A. 🟨,
24', 0 - 1, Huarte X. ⚽,
26', 0 - 2, Pedroarena M. ⚽,
30', 1 - 2, Planas A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Cordero C. 🟨,
62', Pedroarena M. 🟨,
65', Garcia J. ↓, Echegoyen M. ↑,
65', Pedroarena M. ↓, Arroyo R. ↑,
67', Cordero C. ↓, Etxaniz J. ↑,
68', Gomez A. 🟨,
74', Martinez Ortiz L. ↓, Palacin E. ↑,
74', Etxeberria M. ↓, Aznar D. ↑,
75', Santos U. 🟨,
78', Lumbreras C. ↓, Arguibide I. ↑,
79', Aznar D. 🟨,
81', Efremov A. 🟨,
86', Huarte X. ↓, Mutilva C. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 14).

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Sestao will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sestao won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:4 (average 1:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Sestao won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:3 (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sestao River
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
27.10.24	Zamora - Sestao	1:2 ✺
20.10.24	Sestao - Athletic Bilbao B	0:1 ✺
13.10.24	Tarazona - Sestao	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
09.10.24	Sestao - Compostela	0:1 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
06.10.24	Sestao - Barcelona B	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WLLLT
- Osasuna B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
27.10.24	Osasuna B - Lugo	0:1 ✺
20.10.24	Gimnástic de Tarragona - Osasuna B	2:0 ✺
12.10.24	Osasuna B - Gimnástica Segoviana	3:2 ✺
06.10.24	Real Sociedad B - Osasuna B	3:1 ✺
28.09.24	Osasuna B - Ponferradina	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
12.05.24	Osasuna B - Sestao	0:1
16.12.23	Sestao - Osasuna B	2:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
09.04.22	Osasuna B - Sestao	1:1
20.11.21	Sestao - Osasuna B	1:2
05.05.13	Sestao - Osasuna B	0:0

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