Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Tajonar Facilities Stadium (Pamplona)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Osasuna B		Ponferradina

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.1	2.25
	3	3	2.35
	2.99	3.07	2.38
	8.18	1.28	5.90	Watch
	3.03	2.99	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.02 ↑ (2.97)	2.69 ↓ (3.05)	3.06 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Osasuna B
26.2%

Draw
39.2%

Ponferradina
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.9%

30%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

27.4%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Osasuna B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Osasuna B than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Osasuna B, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Osasuna B - Ponferradina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stamatakis D. (G) 2. Arguibide I. 3. Jimenez A. 23. Serrano M. 21. Ruiz R. C. 14. Garcia J. 6. Echegoyen M. 16. Auria M. 8. Yoldi A. 9. Gonzalez D. 11. Pedroarena M.	1. Prieto A. (G) 21. Moreno D. 5. Undabarrena E. 2. Andujar D. 19. Lopez A. 14. Fernandez X. 8. Aguilar Elizalde E. 6. San Emeterio F. 17. Keita A. 7. Sergio Benito 9. Cortes J.
Substitutes
30. Anso M. 34. Arrasate I. 17. Arroyo R. 19. Bonel A. 26. Garin X. 22. Larrion A. 7. Lumbreras C. 20. Perez B. 13. Rafa (G) 5. Santos U.	25. Barredo P. (G) 20. Ferrer P. 16. Frimpong E. 13. Jimenez A. (G) 23. Jorrin M. 12. Lian 4. Moltenis B. 11. Mula A. 3. Novoa G. 10. Valle B. 18. Vazquez B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', 🟨,
59', Sergio Benito ↓, Ferrer P. ↑,
77', 🟨,
81', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Osasuna B won 1.

Osasuna B is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ponferradina's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Osasuna B may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ponferradina will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Osasuna B won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 7:10. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Osasuna B won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Osasuna B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.09.25	Osasuna B - Real Madrid Castilla	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Real Avilés - Osasuna B	2:0 ✺
07.09.25	Osasuna B - Ourense CF	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Osasuna B	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
20.08.25	Osasuna B - Teruel	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WLTWW
- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.09.25	Ponferradina - CD Guadalajara	1:3 ✺
14.09.25	Ferrol - Ponferradina	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Ponferradina - Pontevedra	0:1 ✺
31.08.25	Real Avilés - Ponferradina	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
23.08.25	Ponferradina - Athletic Bilbao B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
20.04.25	Ponferradina - Osasuna B	3:2
28.09.24	Osasuna B - Ponferradina	0:3
04.02.24	Osasuna B - Ponferradina	0:1
30.09.23	Ponferradina - Osasuna B	2:1
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
07.05.17	Osasuna B - Ponferradina	3:0
11.12.16	Ponferradina - Osasuna B	1:1

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