Match Info

AFC Champions League - League phase - Round 3

Date: 21 October 2025, Tuesday

Location: Al Rashid Stadium (Dubai)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 2, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
China	iQIYI, Migu, ZhiBo8
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Arena 2, Astro Go, Sooka
Russia	TV Start
South-korea	Coupang Play
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
Ukraine	Sport 3
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Shabab Al-Ahli		Nasaf Qarshi

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.29	5.3	8.4
	1.29	5.71	9.46
	1.51	4.19	5.47	Watch
	1.33	5.45	8.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.51)	5.16 ↑ (4.19)	8.06 ↑ (5.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shabab Al-Ahli
69.9%

Draw
18.3%

Nasaf Qarshi
11.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.1%

22%

16.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

20.4%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shabab Al-Ahli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Shabab Al-Ahli's performance.

Nasaf Qarshi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nasaf Qarshi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shabab Al-Ahli than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Shabab Al-Ahli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nasaf Qarshi than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nasaf Qarshi could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	11.1%	0%

Shabab Al Ahli - Nasaf Qarshi Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

EH -1 - Shabab Al-Ahli (1.95) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Shabab Al-Ahli will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Shabab Al-Ahli (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Al Meqebaali H. (G) 75. Mateus Henrique 4. Planic B. 13. Renan 23. Seifi M. 88. Maksimovic N. 6. Ezatolahi S. 10. Cartabia F. (C) 19. Mateusao 77. Guilherme 9. Dabbur M.	1. Vorobey O. (G) 22. Golban I. 2. Davronov A. 92. Eshmurodov U. (C) 28. Mukhammadiev S. 14. Mukhitdinov S. 8. Abdirakhmatov Z. 24. Bakhromov S. 34. Nasrullaev S. 10. Ceran D. 7. Shala A.
Substitutes
99. Adyson 26. Al Nuaimi E. 8. Alvarez G. 3. Boualam Y. 80. Breno 14. Garcia D. 25. Gomes I. 28. Gonzalez Baquero S. 12. Hamza H. (G) 15. Kaiky 31. Kauan Santos 70. Thiago	55. Abdunazarov D. 77. Bozorov O. 19. Colovic S. 5. Gaybullaev G. 33. Khalilov B. 35. Nematov A. (G) 18. Norchaev K. 82. Numonov A. (G) 17. Nurulloev S. 20. Otubanjo Y. 9. Sidikov J. 71. Ubaydullayev J.
Coaches
Sousa P.	Berdiev R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Cartabia F. ⚽, Guilherme (A),
10', 1 - 1, Abdirakhmatov Z. ⚽, Bakhromov S. (A),
21', Abdirakhmatov Z. 🟨,
26', Nasrullaev S. 🟨,
27', 2 - 1, Renan ⚽, Cartabia F. (A),
41', 3 - 1, Mateusao ⚽, Ezatolahi S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mukhammadiev S. ↓, Colovic S. ↑,
46', Mukhitdinov S. ↓, Bozorov O. ↑,
62', Golban I. ↓, Sidikov J. ↑,
62', Shala A. ↓, Norchaev K. ↑,
71', Seifi M. ↓, Gomes I. ↑,
72', Mateus Henrique ↓, Kauan Santos ↑,
72', Mateusao ↓, Breno ↑,
72', Sidikov J. 🟨,
80', Abdirakhmatov Z. ↓, Abdunazarov D. ↑,
85', Ezatolahi S. ↓, Garcia D. ↑,
88', Dabbur M. ↓, Thiago ↑,
90+1', Davronov A. 🟨,
90+5', 4 - 1, Breno ⚽, Guilherme (A),

Preview

Shabab Al-Ahli has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Nasaf is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Shabab Al-Ahli is the obvious favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Shabab Al-Ahli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).

Including home match between the teams, Shabab Al-Ahli won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
UAE Football League
17.10.25	Ittihad Kalba - Shabab Al-Ahli	0:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
30.09.25	Al-Ittihad Jeddah - Shabab Al-Ahli	0:1 ✺
UAE Football League
25.09.25	Shabab Al-Ahli - Al Ain	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Al-Nasr - Shabab Al-Ahli	0:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
16.09.25	Shabab Al-Ahli - Tractor Sazi	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 TWLWT
- Nasaf Qarshi
Uzbek League
16.10.25	Nasaf Qarshi - Kokand 1912	3:0 ✺
04.10.25	Bunyodkor - Nasaf Qarshi	2:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
29.09.25	Nasaf Qarshi - Al-Hilal	2:3 ✺
Uzbek League
25.09.25	Nasaf Qarshi - Xorazm Urganch	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Qizilqum - Nasaf Qarshi	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League 2
04.12.24	Shabab Al-Ahli - Nasaf Qarshi	3:2
02.10.24	Nasaf Qarshi - Shabab Al-Ahli	2:1

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