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Current Win Probability
Shakhtar Donetsk 14.1%
Draw 19.7%
Real Madrid 66.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
13%
17.6%
69.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
12.8%
17.4%
70.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Shakhtar Donetsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)
Real Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shakhtar Donetsk than the current prediction. (-1.3%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+4.1%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
11.6%
13.2%
75.2%
Shakhtar Donetsk - Real Madrid Predictions
Users Predictions:
121 users predict this event. Shakhtar will win (votes: 14 - 11.6%). Real will win (votes: 91 - 75.2%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 13.2%). Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 67.5% โ 82.9%.The data is statistically significant.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2
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Preview
Playing home matches at a different stadium.
Shakhtar has currently - 4, has a very small chance of 1st (1%), has a chance of 2nd (32%), has a chance of 3rd (37%), has a chance of round of 16 (34%), has a very small chance of qtrs (5%), has a very small chance of semis (<1%), has a very small chance of final (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Real has currently - 9, has a very good chance of 1st (97%), has a very small chance of 2nd (3%), has a very small chance of 3rd (<1%), has a very good chance of round of 16 (>99%), has a good chance of qtrs (65%), has a chance of semis (36%), has a chance of final (18%), has a small chance of win league (9%).
This event has big quality71, importance37, match rating54. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Shakhtar won 2.
Recent matches Shakhtar is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Real is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Real could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
In this match Real is indisputable favorite.
There will not play in Shakhtar: Korniienko V.
(Knee Injury)
There will not play in Real: Ceballos D.
(Thigh Injury)
Courtois T.
(Muscle Injury)
Last 7 head-to-head matches Shakhtar won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 10-19.
Including matches at home between the teams Shakhtar won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-9.
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