Match Info

Premier League - Round 32

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Shamakhi City Stadium (Shamakhi)

Referee: Quliyev R. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Shamakhi		Turan Tovuz

	1	X	2
	3.7	2.98	1.98	Watch
	4.03	3.07	2.03
	3.68	2.96	2.1	Watch
	3.8	2.8	2
	3.93	2.99	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.83 ↑ (3.41)	2.96 ↓ (3.08)	2.01 ↓ (2.07)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shamakhi
23.8%

Draw
30.8%

Turan Tovuz
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.6%

29.5%

43.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.7%

29.6%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shamakhi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Turan Tovuz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shamakhi than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Turan Tovuz than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Shamakhi - Turan Tovuz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ricardo Fernandes (G) 82. Abbasov R. 7. Adilkhanov E. 5. Agcabayov A. (C) 13. Apolinario R. 11. Balau D. 4. Cezar 97. Mammadov O. 9. Rossi K. 2. Rzayev A. 3. Veremeev V.	41. Samok S. (G) 11. Guseynov A. 15. Hackman E. (C) 3. Henrique 32. Hurtado H. 90. Jo Batista 5. Miller R. 10. Nacafov K. 17. Sadykhov R. 23. Serrano A. 7. Silva J.
Substitutes
88. Fernandes R. 14. Gafarov R. 99. Hashimov S. (G) 21. Ismayilov B. 80. Ismayilov H. 17. Maharramli R. 77. Mehraliyev N. 48. Muradov R. 62. Seyiahmadov A. (G) 19. Shuaibu A. 27. Suleymanov E. 10. Tircoveanu A.	4. Aliyev S. 1. Baklov O. (G) 13. Haciyev M. (G) 2. Mampassi M. 19. Olabe R. 29. Ozobic F. 8. Tavares D. 99. Wadji I. 6. Yusifli F.
Coaches
Abbasov A.	Berdyev K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Agcabayov A. ⚽,
28', 2 - 0, Balau D. ⚽,
35', Nacafov K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
56', Miller R. 🟨,
59', Nacafov K. ↓, Olabe R. ↑,
59', Hackman E. ↓, Mampassi M. ↑,
65', 🟨,
65', 2 - 1, Wadji I. ⚽,
68', Mammadov O. 🟨,
69', Adilkhanov E. ↓, Ismayilov H. ↑,
71', Henrique 🟨,
73', 2 - 2, Serrano A. ⚽,
83', 3 - 2, Rzayev A. ⚽,
90+4', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shamakhi won 0.

Recent form of Shamakhi has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Turan's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Turan might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Shamakhi won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Shamakhi won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 0.6:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Turan Tovuz	6	3	2	1	6:4	2	11
6	Shamakhi	6	2	3	1	8:6	2	9

Last Results with these Odds

Shamakhi - the odds 3.41 are the expected chance of winning is 26.62%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shamakhi FK
Azerbaijan Premier League
10.05.26	Neftchi Baku - Shamakhi	3:0 ✺
03.05.26	Shamakhi - Sabah	0:3 ✺
26.04.26	Shamakhi - Kapaz	2:0 ✺
18.04.26	Karvan - Shamakhi	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Shamakhi - Qarabağ Agdam	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LLWLT
- Turan Tovuz
Azerbaijan Premier League
10.05.26	Turan Tovuz - Karvan	1:0 ✺
04.05.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Turan Tovuz	2:1 ✺
27.04.26	Turan Tovuz - Zira	1:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
21.04.26	Zira - Turan Tovuz	0:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
17.04.26	Araz Naxçıvan - Turan Tovuz	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Premier League
16.02.26	Shamakhi - Turan Tovuz	0:0
02.11.25	Turan Tovuz - Shamakhi	2:1
25.04.25	Turan Tovuz - Shamakhi	1:1
23.02.25	Shamakhi - Turan Tovuz	0:1
09.12.24	Turan Tovuz - Shamakhi	3:2
29.09.24	Shamakhi - Turan Tovuz	2:2
09.04.23	Turan Tovuz - Shamakhi	1:1

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