Match Info

Premier League - Round 17

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday

Location: Neftci Arena (Baku)

Referee: Hajiyev F. (Aze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport


	Neftchi Baku		Zira

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.82	2.92	2.4	Watch
	2.71	3	2.71
	3.02	3.02	2.35	Watch
	2.7	2.8	2.6
	2.81	2.91	2.7
	2.6	3	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.45)	2.94 ↑ (2.82)	2.55 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Neftchi Baku
33%

Draw
31.1%

Zira
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.8%

31.9%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

31.1%

30.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Neftchi Baku has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Zira has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zira than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Zira, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	28.6%	14.3%

Neftchi Baku - Zira Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Neftchi will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Zira will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Piric K. (G) 15. Badalov E. 6. D'Almeida S. 11. Faraj I. 5. Igor Ribeiro 8. Mahmudov E. (C) 18. Mathew I. 77. Sacko F. 9. Sambou B. 24. Seck M. 70. Shtogrin A.	97. Tiago Silva (G) 32. Aliyev Q. (C) 17. Gomis I. 25. Henrique Gelain 93. Konate B. 11. Martins Junior 28. Mickels L. 5. Mutsinzi A. 29. Nuriyev C. 10. Papunashvili G. 4. Ruan Renato
Substitutes
45. Aboubakar V. 1. Balayev E. (G) 93. Cafarov R. (G) 4. Camalov E. 27. Costin C. 17. Khachayev M. 14. Kuc E. 47. Mammadov M. 22. Ortiz L. 23. Rezabala J. 19. Salyanskiy A. 10. Vargas F.	19. Abdullazada R. 26. Acka S. 70. Alasgarov N. 13. Bayramov A. (G) 16. Bayramov F. 77. Bogomolskiy E. 30. Guima 21. Hacyly H. 8. Ibrahimli I. 7. Muradov R. 41. Nazirov A. (G) 9. Volkovi D.
Coaches
Vernidub Y.	Sadiqov R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Shtogrin A. ↓, Mammadov M. ↑,
46', D'Almeida S. ↓, Vargas F. ↑,
61', Sambou B. ↓, Aboubakar V. ↑,
66', Nuriyev C. ↓, Abdullazada R. ↑,
66', Papunashvili G. ↓, Ibrahimli I. ↑,
77', Konate B. ↓, Guima ↑,
77', Mickels L. ↓, Bogomolskiy E. ↑,
80', Faraj I. ↓, Rezabala J. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Neftchi won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Zira may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Neftchi has had a series of away games.

Recently, Zira has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Neftchi won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 23:22. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Neftchi won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:10. (average 1.3:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Neftci Baku	6	5	0	1	18:5	13	15
5	Zira	6	3	1	2	7:8	-1	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League
20.12.25	Karvan - Neftchi Baku	1:2 ✺
15.12.25	Neftchi Baku - Sumgayit	2:2 ✺
08.12.25	Sabah - Neftchi Baku	2:0 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
02.12.25	Zira - Neftchi Baku	1:0 ET ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
28.11.25	Turan Tovuz - Neftchi Baku	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WTLLT
- Zira FK
Club Friendly
16.01.26	Zira - Bohemians 1905	1:3 ✺
Azerbaijan Premier League
20.12.25	Zira - İmişli	0:0 ✺
13.12.25	Shamakhi - Zira	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Zira - Qarabağ Agdam	1:1 ✺
Azerbaijan Cup
02.12.25	Zira - Neftchi Baku	1:0 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Azerbaijan Cup
02.12.25	Zira - Neftchi Baku	1:0 ET
Azerbaijan Premier League
03.10.25	Zira - Neftchi Baku	2:2
13.04.25	Neftchi Baku - Zira	2:4
10.02.25	Zira - Neftchi Baku	1:2
23.11.24	Neftchi Baku - Zira	2:1
15.09.24	Zira - Neftchi Baku	2:0
20.04.24	Zira - Neftchi Baku	3:1

Upcoming Matches